Wk 3 · 2026
Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned Frogs — Sat, Sep 19
Sat, Sep 19 ·
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
· ESPNU FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
8:00pET
TCU -18.5 · total 56.5 DraftKings opened -20.5 · 2 toward ARST
Ratings differential TCU by 18.2
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Arkansas St form
L 49-56vs USAL 20-23at ULW 17-14vs KENNL 7-31at TCUW 52-7vs WGA
2026 season
TCU form
L 10-17vs BYUL 13-21at UCFW 31-7vs ARSTW 63-7vs GRAML 10-15vs UNC
2026 season
Arkansas St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
TCU this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, TCU leads 1–0 · TCU won the last one
1 meeting
in 2006–2026 · average margin
24.0 points toward TCU
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-19 | Arkansas St 7 — 31 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
Arkansas St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Trey Owens QB #9 | 121/176, 1461 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT |
| Rushing | Solomon Baggett RB #23 | 46 CAR, 239 YDS, 2 TD |
| Trey Owens QB #9 | 38 CAR, 149 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James Lee RB #27 | 17 CAR, 123 YDS | |
| Receiving | Hunter Summers WR #3 | 29 REC, 408 YDS, 3 TD |
| Chauncy Cobb WR #2 | 27 REC, 307 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Bonelli WR #10 | 20 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jabari Bush TE #17 | 9 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Joe Drew S #16 | 59 |
| Five Hamilton S #5 | 35 | |
| AG McGhee S #6 | 32 | |
| Sacks | Ryan Reese DT #54 | 1.5 |
| Robert Stevens LB #23 | 1 | |
| Elias Sherman DT #92 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Brandon Greil S #15 | 1 |
| Dontrae Henderson CB #0 | 1 | |
| Robert Stevens LB #23 | 1 |
TCU leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jaden Craig QB #1 | 108/157, 1400 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT |
| Adam Schobel QB #11 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | Jeremy Payne RB #26 | 87 CAR, 432 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jon Denman RB #2 | 23 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Joe Pitchford RB #24 | 11 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Ed Small WR #18 | 28 REC, 403 YDS, 1 TD |
| Kari Ashley TE #81 | 25 REC, 374 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jeremy Scott WR #6 | 13 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jacobe Hayes WR #80 | 9 REC, 133 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Hudson Hooper LB #37 | 27 |
| Jamel Johnson S #2 | 26 | |
| Max Carroll LB #3 | 21 | |
| Sacks | Ansel Din-Mbuh DT #92 | 2 |
| John Schobel EDGE #14 | 2 | |
| Markis Deal DT #95 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Vernon Glover Jr. CB #1 | 1 |
| Teon Parks CB #21 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.