Wk 3 · 2026
Ball State Cardinals at Liberty Flames — Sat, Sep 19
Sat, Sep 19 ·
Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, VA
· ESPN+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
4:00pET
LIB -14.5 · total 49.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential LIB by 21.6
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Ball State form
L 14-45at NUL 24-39vs TOLL 13-26at KENTL 15-51at LIBW 41-17vs STBK
2026 season
Liberty form
W 35-3vs SHSUW 30-14at DELW 34-17at CCUW 51-15vs BALLW 24-23vs GWEB
2026 season
Ball State this season
Straight up1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Liberty this season
Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Liberty leads 2–0 · Liberty has won the last 2
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
20.0 points toward Liberty
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-19 | Ball State 15 — 51 Liberty | at LIB | Liberty |
| 2010 | 2010-09-11 | Liberty 27 — 23 Ball State | at BALL | Liberty |
Ball State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Keldric Luster QB #6 | 76/119, 662 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT |
| Tyler Mizzell QB #9 | 19/33, 209 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | TJ Horton RB #4 | 37 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jalen Bonds RB #2 | 24 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Johnny Thompson Jr. RB #20 | 24 CAR, 74 YDS | |
| Receiving | Donovan Hamilton WR #1 | 20 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jamarion McDougle WR #10 | 12 REC, 135 YDS | |
| Jabari Smith WR #5 | 12 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Isaiah Thacker WR #11 | 13 REC, 112 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Sterling Smith DB #1 | 35 |
| Cincear Lewis LB #6 | 26 | |
| Quentavius Scandrett DB #33 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Layton Starks LB #11 | 1.5 |
| Jared Badie LB #31 | 1 | |
| Ka'Shawn Thomas DT #94 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kamron Chamble DB #13 | 2 |
| Cedric Franklin II DB #18 | 1 |
Liberty leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Deshawn Purdie QB #5 | 70/114, 1050 YDS, 8 TD |
| Jaylen Henderson QB #13 | 5/13, 101 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rushing | Kam Davis RB #4 | 74 CAR, 524 YDS, 4 TD |
| Peyton Jones RB #7 | 56 CAR, 259 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylon Coleman RB #0 | 24 CAR, 238 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Makai Jackson WR #2 | 22 REC, 515 YDS, 5 TD |
| Jamari Person WR #3 | 12 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Darius Copeland WR #1 | 8 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Zeke Wimbush TE #88 | 7 REC, 88 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derrell Farrar LB #1 | 33 |
| Aidan Vaughan LB #33 | 33 | |
| Jeremiah Vessel S #13 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Brenton Williams RB #8 | 2.5 |
| Markus Clark DL #15 | 1.5 | |
| Deuce Spurlock LB #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Elijah Hopkins CB #5 | 1 |
| Deuce Spurlock LB #9 | 1 | |
| Jeremiah Vessel S #13 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.