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Wk 7 · 2026

Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns — Sat, Oct 17

Sat, Oct 17 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX · ABC

Weather at kickoff

56°F clear
4% chance of precipitation · wind 16 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
SEC · 4-2
at
12:00pET
TEX -10 · total 53.5 DraftKings opened -9.5 · 0.5 toward TEX
Ratings differential TEX by 11.1
SEC · 4-1

What is at stake

A SEC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Florida is ranked #16 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04). Texas is ranked #1 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Florida: +13.0#22
Efficiency margin
Texas: +21.7#7
Florida: 40.3
Offense (pts/100)
Texas: 39.5
Florida: 18.4
Defense (pts/100)
Texas: 8.7
Florida: 69.8
Pace (plays/g)
Texas: 69.8
Florida: 6.79
Yards / play
Texas: 5.43
Florida: 5.64
Yards / play allowed
Texas: 4.22
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Florida: 41.7
Points / game
Texas: 31.4
Florida: 29.0
Points allowed
Texas: 16.0
Florida: 474
Yards / game
Texas: 379
Florida: 393
Yards allowed
Texas: 264
Florida: 269
Pass yds allowed
Texas: 168
Florida: 124
Rush yds allowed
Texas: 96
Florida: 1.17
Turnovers / game
Texas: 1.40
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Florida form

L 19-38vs SCL 17-45at MIZW 52-28vs MISSW 44-39at AUBW 52-3vs CAM
2026 season

Texas form

L 24-27at OUW 20-17at TENNW 30-6vs UTSAW 24-23vs OSUW 59-7vs TXST
2026 season

Florida this season

Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)

Texas this season

Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 3

OpponentFloridaTexas
Ole Miss
SEC
vs W 52-28 previewvs Wk 8 · scheduled preview
Missouri
SEC
at L 17-45 previewat Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Oklahoma
SEC
vs Wk 10 · scheduled previewN L 24-27 preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, the series is level at 1–1 · Florida won the last one
2 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 12.0 points toward Texas
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20252025-10-04Texas 21 — 29 Floridaat FLAFlorida
20242024-11-09Florida 17 — 49 Texasat TEXTexas

Florida leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAaron Philo QB #1284/121, 1114 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT
Tramell Jones Jr. QB #917/21, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushingJadan Baugh RB #1395 CAR, 613 YDS, 11 TD
Duke Clark RB #2033 CAR, 260 YDS, 3 TD
Aaron Philo QB #1231 CAR, 72 YDS, 3 TD
ReceivingDallas Wilson WR #618 REC, 302 YDS, 3 TD
Vernell Brown III WR #117 REC, 271 YDS, 2 TD
TJ Abrams WR #48 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD
Bailey Stockton WR #315 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesMyles Graham LB #534
Aaron Chiles LB #822
Jayden Woods LB #021
SacksJayden Woods LB #04
Emmanuel Oyebadejo DL #993.5
Kamran James DL #242
InterceptionsDJ Coleman S #332
Cormani McClain CB #251
Dijon Johnson CB #271

Texas leaders 2026 regular season

PassingArch Manning QB #1673/115, 862 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
Karle Lacey Jr. QB #97/8, 63 YDS
RushingHollywood Smothers RB #241 CAR, 198 YDS, 2 TD
Raleek Brown RB #048 CAR, 196 YDS, 4 TD
Arch Manning QB #1632 CAR, 82 YDS
ReceivingRyan Wingo WR #119 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD
Cam Coleman WR #812 REC, 208 YDS, 4 TD
Emmett Mosley V WR #312 REC, 173 YDS
Jermaine Bishop Jr. WR #46 REC, 81 YDS
Defense
TacklesRasheem Biles LB #329
Jelani McDonald DB #426
Justin Cryer LB #2823
SacksColin Simmons EDGE #17.5
Maraad Watson DL #882
Rasheem Biles LB #31
InterceptionsRasheem Biles LB #32
Graceson Littleton DB #291
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.