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Wk 12 · 2026

NC State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles — Sat, Nov 21

Sat, Nov 21 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 40 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
NC State Wolfpack
ACC · 3-3
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential FSU by 5.4
Florida State Seminoles
ACC · 3-3

What is at stake

A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

NC State: +1.5#64
Efficiency margin
Florida St: +4.5#48
NC State: 33.7
Offense (pts/100)
Florida St: 34.5
NC State: 23.1
Defense (pts/100)
Florida St: 21.0
NC State: 71.0
Pace (plays/g)
Florida St: 64.7
NC State: 6.00
Yards / play
Florida St: 6.33
NC State: 6.06
Yards / play allowed
Florida St: 6.12
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

NC State: 33.0
Points / game
Florida St: 31.0
NC State: 27.7
Points allowed
Florida St: 25.3
NC State: 426
Yards / game
Florida St: 410
NC State: 364
Yards allowed
Florida St: 410
NC State: 230
Pass yds allowed
Florida St: 245
NC State: 134
Rush yds allowed
Florida St: 166
NC State: 1.50
Turnovers / game
Florida St: 1.33
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

NC State form

L 14-38vs WAKEW 31-28vs LOUW 41-31vs APPL 31-35at VANW 73-0vs RICH
2026 season

Florida St form

L 20-44at LOUW 38-7vs UVAW 34-7vs CARKL 36-50at ALAL 24-27vs SMU
2026 season

NC State this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)

Florida St this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 2

OpponentNC StateFlorida St
Virginia
ACC
at L 8-34 previewvs W 38-7 preview
Louisville
ACC
vs W 31-28 previewat L 20-44 preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, the series is level at 9–9 · NC State has won the last 4
18 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 4.1 points toward Florida St
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20252025-11-21Florida St 11 — 21 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20222022-10-08Florida St 17 — 19 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20212021-11-06NC State 28 — 14 Florida Stat FSUNC State
20202020-11-14Florida St 22 — 38 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20192019-09-28NC State 13 — 31 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20182018-11-03Florida St 28 — 47 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20172017-09-23NC State 27 — 21 Florida Stat FSUNC State
20162016-11-05Florida St 24 — 20 NC Stateat NCSUFlorida St
20152015-11-14NC State 17 — 34 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20142014-09-27Florida St 56 — 41 NC Stateat NCSUFlorida St
20132013-10-26NC State 17 — 49 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20122012-10-06Florida St 16 — 17 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20112011-10-29NC State 0 — 34 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20102010-10-28Florida St 24 — 28 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20092009-10-31NC State 42 — 45 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20082008-10-16Florida St 26 — 17 NC Stateat NCSUFlorida St
20072007-10-06NC State 10 — 27 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20062006-10-05Florida St 20 — 24 NC Stateat NCSUNC State

NC State leaders 2026 regular season

PassingCJ Bailey QB #1198/150, 1266 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT
Will Wilson QB #108/11, 33 YDS, 1 TD
RushingJayden Scott RB #162 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD
Davion Gause RB #746 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD
Will Wilson QB #1035 CAR, 166 YDS, 6 TD
ReceivingKeenan Jackson WR #822 REC, 339 YDS, 5 TD
Preston Douglas TE #1919 REC, 241 YDS, 1 TD
Joshisa Trader WR #216 REC, 221 YDS
Davion Gause RB #710 REC, 117 YDS
Defense
TacklesPopo Aguirre LB #042
Brian Nelson II CB #724
Ronnie Royal III S #218
SacksElijah Satchell LB #582
Harvey Dyson III LB #51.5
Chase Bond DE #921
InterceptionsJackson Vick CB #221
Brody Barnhardt S #291
Jaren Sensabaugh CB #141
full roster and per-player history

Florida St leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAshton Daniels QB #1491/153, 1320 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Kevin Sperry QB #92/3, 14 YDS
RushingOusmane Kromah RB #32100 CAR, 565 YDS, 5 TD
Ashton Daniels QB #1470 CAR, 323 YDS, 10 TD
Quintrevion Wisner RB #529 CAR, 141 YDS
ReceivingJayvan Boggs WR #1516 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD
Duce Robinson WR #017 REC, 294 YDS, 2 TD
Micahi Danzy WR #819 REC, 293 YDS, 2 TD
Samuel Singleton Jr. RB #38 REC, 162 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesCJ Richard Jr. DB #1138
Chris Jones LB #1037
Omar Graham Jr. LB #931
SacksRylan Kennedy DL #155
Mikai Gbayor LB #282
Mandrell Desir DL #32
InterceptionsQuindarrius Jones DB #01
Nehemiah Chandler DB #121
Ashlynd Barker DB #71
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.