Wk 1 · 2026
North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned Frogs — Sat, Aug 29
Sat, Aug 29 ·
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
· ESPN · Disney+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
vs
12:00pET
TCU -7.5 · total 46.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential TCU by 1.6
What is at stake
A neutral-site game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race. Aer Lingus College Football Classic.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
no home-field adjustment at a neutral site.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
North Carolina form
W 21-17at PITTL 26-37vs NDL 20-28at CLEMW 35-3vs ETSUW 15-10at TCU
2026 season
TCU form
L 10-17vs BYUL 13-21at UCFW 31-7vs ARSTW 63-7vs GRAML 10-15vs UNC
2026 season
North Carolina this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
TCU this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 1–1 · North Carolina won the last one
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
14.5 points toward TCU
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-08-29 | North Carolina 15 — 10 TCU | neutral | North Carolina |
| 2025 | 2025-09-01 | TCU 48 — 14 North Carolina | at UNC | TCU |
North Carolina leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Billy Edwards Jr. QB #9 | 61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Miles O'Neill QB #8 | 3/6, 22 YDS | |
| Rushing | Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 43 CAR, 251 YDS |
| Demon June RB #0 | 31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jaylen McGill RB #27 | 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 20 REC, 273 YDS |
| Jelani Thurman TE #45 | 16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD | |
| C.J. Sadler WR #14 | 5 REC, 87 YDS | |
| Trech Kekahuna WR #2 | 6 REC, 71 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derek McDonald LB #15 | 36 |
| Peyton Seelmann LB #10 | 31 | |
| Leroy Jackson DL #91 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Xavier Lewis DL #90 | 6 |
| Jaylen Harvey DL #11 | 2 | |
| Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Greg Smith DB #1 | 2 |
TCU leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jaden Craig QB #1 | 108/157, 1400 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT |
| Adam Schobel QB #11 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | Jeremy Payne RB #26 | 87 CAR, 432 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jon Denman RB #2 | 23 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Joe Pitchford RB #24 | 11 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Ed Small WR #18 | 28 REC, 403 YDS, 1 TD |
| Kari Ashley TE #81 | 25 REC, 374 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jeremy Scott WR #6 | 13 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jacobe Hayes WR #80 | 9 REC, 133 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Hudson Hooper LB #37 | 27 |
| Jamel Johnson S #2 | 26 | |
| Max Carroll LB #3 | 21 | |
| Sacks | Ansel Din-Mbuh DT #92 | 2 |
| John Schobel EDGE #14 | 2 | |
| Markis Deal DT #95 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Vernon Glover Jr. CB #1 | 1 |
| Teon Parks CB #21 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.