Wk 7 · 2026
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
· FS1
Big 12 · 2-3
at
7:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential BAY by 5.7
Big 12 · 4-1
What is at stake
The Revivalry. Ninety miles apart in central Texas, a series that goes back to 1899 and got its nickname when both programs were resurrected in the Big 12. A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
TCU form
L 10-17vs BYUL 13-21at UCFW 31-7vs ARSTW 63-7vs GRAML 10-15vs UNC
2026 season
Baylor form
W 55-19at ASUW 23-13vs COLOW 36-19vs LTW 44-3vs PVL 16-17at AUB
2026 season
TCU this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Baylor this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| UCF Big 12 | at L 13-21 preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| BYU Big 12 | vs L 10-17 preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Kansas Big 12 | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Texas Tech Big 12 | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, TCU leads 13–5 · TCU won the last one
18 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
11.3 points toward TCU
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-10-18 | Baylor 36 — 42 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2024 | 2024-11-02 | TCU 34 — 37 Baylor | at BAY | Baylor |
| 2023 | 2023-11-18 | Baylor 17 — 42 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2022 | 2022-11-19 | TCU 29 — 28 Baylor | at BAY | TCU |
| 2021 | 2021-11-06 | Baylor 28 — 30 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | TCU 33 — 23 Baylor | at BAY | TCU |
| 2019 | 2019-11-09 | Baylor 29 — 23 TCU | at TCU | Baylor |
| 2018 | 2018-11-17 | TCU 16 — 9 Baylor | at BAY | TCU |
| 2017 | 2017-11-24 | Baylor 22 — 45 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2016 | 2016-11-05 | TCU 62 — 22 Baylor | at BAY | TCU |
| 2015 | 2015-11-27 | Baylor 21 — 28 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2014 | 2014-10-11 | TCU 58 — 61 Baylor | at BAY | Baylor |
| 2013 | 2013-11-30 | Baylor 41 — 38 TCU | at TCU | Baylor |
| 2012 | 2012-10-13 | TCU 49 — 21 Baylor | at BAY | TCU |
| 2011 | 2011-09-02 | TCU 48 — 50 Baylor | at BAY | Baylor |
| 2010 | 2010-09-18 | Baylor 10 — 45 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2007 | 2007-09-01 | Baylor 0 — 27 TCU | at TCU | TCU |
| 2006 | 2006-09-03 | TCU 17 — 7 Baylor | at BAY | TCU |
TCU leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jaden Craig QB #1 | 108/157, 1400 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT |
| Adam Schobel QB #11 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | Jeremy Payne RB #26 | 87 CAR, 432 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jon Denman RB #2 | 23 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Joe Pitchford RB #24 | 11 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Ed Small WR #18 | 28 REC, 403 YDS, 1 TD |
| Kari Ashley TE #81 | 25 REC, 374 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jeremy Scott WR #6 | 13 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jacobe Hayes WR #80 | 9 REC, 133 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Hudson Hooper LB #37 | 27 |
| Jamel Johnson S #2 | 26 | |
| Max Carroll LB #3 | 21 | |
| Sacks | Ansel Din-Mbuh DT #92 | 2 |
| John Schobel EDGE #14 | 2 | |
| Markis Deal DT #95 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Vernon Glover Jr. CB #1 | 1 |
| Teon Parks CB #21 | 1 |
Baylor leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | DJ Lagway QB #2 | 71/133, 860 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT |
| Nate Bennett QB #12 | 47/62, 581 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT | |
| Rushing | Dawson Pendergrass RB #35 | 81 CAR, 316 YDS, 1 TD |
| Caden Knighten RB #11 | 49 CAR, 244 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Ryelan Morris RB #25 | 22 CAR, 182 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Gavin Freeman WR #6 | 42 REC, 479 YDS, 2 TD |
| Louis Brown IV WR #4 | 15 REC, 253 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Jayden McGowan WR #15 | 9 REC, 210 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jadon Porter WR #3 | 9 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Travion Barnes LB #5 | 33 |
| Micah Gifford S #24 | 30 | |
| Devon Jordan CB #7 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Daniel Cobbs S #14 | 3 |
| Bo Onu S #21 | 3 | |
| Devonte Tezino DL #59 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Devon Jordan CB #7 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush II CB #22 | 1 | |
| Micah Gifford S #24 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.