Wk 5 · 2026
UCF Knights at Houston Cougars — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
· ESPN2 FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:00pET
HOU -10.5 · total 50.5 DraftKings opened -11.5 · 1 toward UCF
Ratings differential HOU by 10.8
What is at stake
A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Houston is ranked #22 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
UCF form
L 28-42at OKSTL 17-27at HOUW 21-13vs TCUW 44-30vs GASTL 7-12at PITT
2026 season
Houston form
W 35-16at KSUW 27-17vs UCFW 42-28at GASOL 26-28at TTUW 77-6vs SOU
2026 season
UCF this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Houston this season
Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | UCF | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St Big 12 | at L 28-42 preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Baylor Big 12 | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Colorado Big 12 | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, UCF leads 7–5 · Houston has won the last 2
12 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
1.2 points toward Houston
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | UCF 17 — 27 Houston | at HOU | Houston |
| 2025 | 2025-11-07 | Houston 30 — 27 UCF | at UCF | Houston |
| 2023 | 2023-11-25 | Houston 13 — 27 UCF | at UCF | UCF |
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | UCF 44 — 21 Houston | at HOU | UCF |
| 2019 | 2019-11-02 | Houston 29 — 44 UCF | at UCF | UCF |
| 2016 | 2016-10-29 | UCF 24 — 31 Houston | at HOU | Houston |
| 2015 | 2015-10-24 | Houston 59 — 10 UCF | at UCF | Houston |
| 2014 | 2014-10-02 | UCF 17 — 12 Houston | at HOU | UCF |
| 2013 | 2013-11-09 | Houston 14 — 19 UCF | at UCF | UCF |
| 2010 | 2010-11-05 | UCF 40 — 33 Houston | at HOU | UCF |
| 2009 | 2009-11-14 | Houston 32 — 37 UCF | at UCF | UCF |
| 2006 | 2006-10-28 | UCF 31 — 51 Houston | at HOU | Houston |
UCF leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Keyone Jenkins QB #12 | 53/76, 541 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT |
| Alonza Barnett III QB #14 | 31/49, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Duke Watson RB #26 | 49 CAR, 404 YDS, 3 TD |
| Landen Chambers RB #11 | 24 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Taevion Swint RB #4 | 25 CAR, 135 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Josh Derry WR #5 | 17 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD |
| Waden Charles WR #9 | 14 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Ric'Darious Farmer WR #6 | 9 REC, 95 YDS | |
| Caden Piening TE #18 | 9 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Tackett Curtis LB #24 | 33 |
| Demari Henderson DB #8 | 29 | |
| Lewis Carter LB #20 | 24 | |
| Sacks | Isaiah Nixon EDGE #6 | 2.5 |
| Aymeric Koumba EDGE #12 | 1.5 | |
| Demari Henderson DB #8 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Demari Henderson DB #8 | 2 |
| Jayden Williams DB #2 | 1 | |
| Jayden Bellamy DB #1 | 1 |
Houston leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Conner Weigman QB #1 | 91/135, 1186 YDS, 11 TD, 1 INT |
| Keisean Henderson QB #5 | 6/8, 83 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rushing | Re'Shaun Sanford II RB #6 | 55 CAR, 314 YDS, 2 TD |
| Makhi Hughes RB #21 | 66 CAR, 309 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Conner Weigman QB #1 | 42 CAR, 156 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Receiving | Amare Thomas WR #0 | 27 REC, 330 YDS, 4 TD |
| Patrick Overmyer TE #9 | 25 REC, 317 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Trent Walker WR #4 | 14 REC, 198 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Koby Young WR #2 | 8 REC, 176 YDS, 4 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Kentrell Webb DB #8 | 32 |
| Jaden Yates LB #1 | 29 | |
| Javion White DB #0 | 20 | |
| Sacks | Javion White DB #0 | 2.5 |
| Ashton Porter DL #9 | 2 | |
| Khalil Laufau DL #18 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Jordan Allen DB #6 | 1 |
| Will James DB #5 | 1 | |
| Latreveon McCutchin LB #10 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.