Wk 1 · 2026
UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Sat, Sep 5
Sat, Sep 5 ·
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
· ESPNU FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
7:30pET
MSST -28.5 · total 54.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential MSST by 38.0
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race. Mississippi St is ranked #17 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
UL Monroe form
L 35-52at USAL 17-45vs FAUL 35-38vs SELAL 20-26at UABL 13-62at MSST
2026 season
Mississippi St form
L 23-56vs ALAW 31-24vs MIZW 41-34at SCW 38-13at MINNW 62-13vs ULM
2026 season
UL Monroe this season
Straight up0-5 · 0% (5 games)
Against the spread1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Mississippi St this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Mississippi St leads 1–0 · Mississippi St won the last one
1 meeting
in 2006–2026 · average margin
49.0 points toward Mississippi St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-05 | UL Monroe 13 — 62 Mississippi St | at MSST | Mississippi St |
UL Monroe leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Aidan Armenta QB #10 | 69/107, 855 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT |
| Austin Carlisle QB #12 | 35/53, 312 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT | |
| Rushing | Austin Carlisle QB #12 | 37 CAR, 219 YDS, 1 TD |
| Bryson Roland RB #25 | 40 CAR, 144 YDS | |
| Derrick Jameson RB #3 | 22 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Marcellus Jackson WR #1 | 26 REC, 234 YDS |
| LT Robinson WR #0 | 12 REC, 194 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Parker Fulghum WR #13 | 13 REC, 161 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Nic Trujillo WR #7 | 10 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Noah Flemmings LB #3 | 43 |
| Marcus Ross LB #30 | 27 | |
| Jabari Tiller DB #1 | 26 | |
| Sacks | Tyrell Brown DL #34 | 2 |
| Carl Fauntroy S #8 | 1 | |
| Kevontay Wells DL #31 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Carl Fauntroy S #8 | 1 |
Mississippi St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Kamario Taylor QB #1 | 102/154, 1450 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT |
| Parker Puckett QB #15 | 8/14, 89 YDS | |
| Rushing | Fluff Bothwell RB #24 | 74 CAR, 403 YDS, 3 TD |
| Kamario Taylor QB #1 | 43 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kolin Wilson RB #6 | 31 CAR, 131 YDS | |
| Receiving | Anthony Evans III WR #3 | 40 REC, 574 YDS, 5 TD |
| Sanfrisco Magee WR #13 | 16 REC, 259 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Marquis Johnson WR #2 | 13 REC, 218 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Zion Ragins WR #7 | 11 REC, 184 YDS, 4 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Tyler Lockhart LB #11 | 31 |
| Jalen Smith LB #10 | 28 | |
| Amaree Williams EDGE #4 | 26 | |
| Sacks | Will Whitson DL #43 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockhart LB #11 | 2 | |
| Jaray Bledsoe DL #9 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Jalen Smith LB #10 | 1 |
| Dre Riley S #21 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.