Wk 7 · 2026
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas Tech Red Raiders — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, TX
· Fox
Big 12 · 3-2
at
3:30pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential TTU by 15.9
Big 12 · 5-0
What is at stake
A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Texas Tech is ranked #11 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Arizona St form
W 30-12vs HAWL 19-55vs BAYW 24-17at KUL 20-48at TA&MW 70-7vs MORG
2026 season
Texas Tech form
W 29-7at COLOW 49-14vs SHSUW 28-26vs HOUW 35-24at ORSTW 33-10vs ACU
2026 season
Arizona St this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Texas Tech this season
Straight up5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Arizona St | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor Big 12 | vs L 19-55 preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Colorado Big 12 | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at W 29-7 preview |
| Oklahoma St Big 12 | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Arizona Big 12 | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Texas Tech leads 3–2 · Arizona St won the last one
5 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
2.4 points toward Texas Tech
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-10-18 | Texas Tech 22 — 26 Arizona St | at ASU | Arizona St |
| 2024 | 2024-09-21 | Arizona St 22 — 30 Texas Tech | at TTU | Texas Tech |
| 2017 | 2017-09-16 | Arizona St 45 — 52 Texas Tech | at TTU | Texas Tech |
| 2016 | 2016-09-10 | Texas Tech 55 — 68 Arizona St | at ASU | Arizona St |
| 2013 | 2013-12-30 | Arizona St 23 — 37 Texas Tech | neutral | Texas Tech bowl/CFP |
Arizona St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Cutter Boley QB #8 | 78/127, 1040 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| Mikey Keene QB #12 | 4/7, 32 YDS | |
| Rushing | Kyson Brown RB #1 | 50 CAR, 261 YDS, 1 TD |
| Marquis Gillis RB #6 | 17 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jason Brown Jr. RB #22 | 9 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Reed Harris WR #3 | 26 REC, 499 YDS, 5 TD |
| Omarion Miller WR #4 | 25 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Grayson Rigdon RB #21 | 2 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Cardae Mack RB #25 | 2 REC, 38 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Owen Long LB #22 | 38 |
| Martell Hughes LB #8 | 29 | |
| Montana Warren DB #7 | 25 | |
| Sacks | C.J. Fite DL #99 | 2 |
| Clayton Smith DL #10 | 1 | |
| Emar'rion Winston DL #4 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Lyrik Rawls DB #2 | 1 |
| Owen Long LB #22 | 1 |
Texas Tech leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Will Hammond QB #15 | 97/142, 1102 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT |
| Tommy Castellanos QB #1 | 2/4, 35 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | J'Koby Williams RB #20 | 63 CAR, 373 YDS, 3 TD |
| Cameron Dickey RB #8 | 57 CAR, 242 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Quinten Joyner RB #0 | 35 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Kenny Johnson WR #4 | 17 REC, 298 YDS, 1 TD |
| Coy Eakin WR #3 | 16 REC, 194 YDS, 2 TD | |
| J'Koby Williams RB #20 | 19 REC, 137 YDS | |
| Terrance Carter Jr. TE #7 | 13 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Austin Romaine LB #15 | 35 |
| Ben Roberts LB #13 | 32 | |
| John Curry LB #6 | 28 | |
| Sacks | A.J. Holmes Jr. DL #10 | 2.5 |
| Jamond Mathis LB #8 | 2.5 | |
| LaDamion Guyton LB #32 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | John Curry LB #6 | 2 |
| Brice Pollock CB #14 | 2 | |
| Austin Romaine LB #15 | 2 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.