Wk 5 · 2026
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
· ESPN FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
10:30pET
ASU -3.5 · total 49.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential BAY by 5.6
What is at stake
A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Baylor form
W 55-19at ASUW 23-13vs COLOW 36-19vs LTW 44-3vs PVL 16-17at AUB
2026 season
Arizona St form
W 30-12vs HAWL 19-55vs BAYW 24-17at KUL 20-48at TA&MW 70-7vs MORG
2026 season
Baylor this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Arizona St this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | Baylor | Arizona St |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Big 12 | vs W 23-13 preview | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Kansas Big 12 | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | N W 24-17 preview |
| UCF Big 12 | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| BYU Big 12 | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Texas Tech Big 12 | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 1–1 · Baylor won the last one
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
16.5 points toward Baylor
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | Baylor 55 — 19 Arizona St | at ASU | Baylor |
| 2025 | 2025-09-20 | Arizona St 27 — 24 Baylor | at BAY | Arizona St |
Baylor leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | DJ Lagway QB #2 | 71/133, 860 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT |
| Nate Bennett QB #12 | 47/62, 581 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT | |
| Rushing | Dawson Pendergrass RB #35 | 81 CAR, 316 YDS, 1 TD |
| Caden Knighten RB #11 | 49 CAR, 244 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Ryelan Morris RB #25 | 22 CAR, 182 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Gavin Freeman WR #6 | 42 REC, 479 YDS, 2 TD |
| Louis Brown IV WR #4 | 15 REC, 253 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Jayden McGowan WR #15 | 9 REC, 210 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jadon Porter WR #3 | 9 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Travion Barnes LB #5 | 33 |
| Micah Gifford S #24 | 30 | |
| Devon Jordan CB #7 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Daniel Cobbs S #14 | 3 |
| Bo Onu S #21 | 3 | |
| Devonte Tezino DL #59 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Devon Jordan CB #7 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush II CB #22 | 1 | |
| Micah Gifford S #24 | 1 |
Arizona St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Cutter Boley QB #8 | 78/127, 1040 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| Mikey Keene QB #12 | 4/7, 32 YDS | |
| Rushing | Kyson Brown RB #1 | 50 CAR, 261 YDS, 1 TD |
| Marquis Gillis RB #6 | 17 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jason Brown Jr. RB #22 | 9 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Reed Harris WR #3 | 26 REC, 499 YDS, 5 TD |
| Omarion Miller WR #4 | 25 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Grayson Rigdon RB #21 | 2 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Cardae Mack RB #25 | 2 REC, 38 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Owen Long LB #22 | 38 |
| Martell Hughes LB #8 | 29 | |
| Montana Warren DB #7 | 25 | |
| Sacks | C.J. Fite DL #99 | 2 |
| Clayton Smith DL #10 | 1 | |
| Emar'rion Winston DL #4 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Lyrik Rawls DB #2 | 1 |
| Owen Long LB #22 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.