Wk 1 · 2026
Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans — Fri, Sep 4
Fri, Sep 4 ·
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
· Fox FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
9:00pET
USC -21.5 · total 51.5 DraftKings opened -22.5 · 1 toward FRES
Ratings differential USC by 14.2
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race. USC is ranked #19 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Fresno St form
L 31-38vs BOISW 26-6at WSUW 38-24vs RICEW 26-10at SJSUW 49-3vs SAC
2026 season
USC form
W 31-23at PSUW 25-21vs WASHL 27-41vs OREW 42-35at RUTGW 49-30vs UL
2026 season
Fresno St this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
USC this season
Straight up6-1 · 86% (7 games)
Against the spread2-5 · 29% (7 games)
Over / under4-3 · 57% (7 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 1
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, USC leads 5–0 · USC has won the last 5
5 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
27.8 points toward USC
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-04 | Fresno St 0 — 39 USC | at USC | USC |
| 2022 | 2022-09-17 | Fresno St 17 — 45 USC | at USC | USC |
| 2019 | 2019-08-31 | Fresno St 23 — 31 USC | at USC | USC |
| 2014 | 2014-08-30 | Fresno St 13 — 52 USC | at USC | USC |
| 2013 | 2013-12-21 | Fresno St 20 — 45 USC | neutral | USC bowl/CFP |
Fresno St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jayden Mandal QB #7 | 91/137, 1034 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT |
| Jordan Malau'ulu WR #10 | 1/1, 21 YDS | |
| Rushing | Rayshon Luke RB #2 | 42 CAR, 286 YDS, 1 TD |
| Bryson Donelson RB #6 | 48 CAR, 206 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jayden Mandal QB #7 | 35 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Josiah Freeman WR #5 | 25 REC, 322 YDS, 2 TD |
| Ezekiel Avit WR #0 | 13 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jahlil McClain WR #1 | 12 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rayshon Luke RB #2 | 12 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | K'vion Thunderbird LB #10 | 39 |
| Simeon Harris DB #5 | 25 | |
| Gerayas Grimes DB #27 | 24 | |
| Sacks | Dylan Hampsten DL #11 | 3 |
| Tytus Khajavi LB #35 | 2 | |
| Deijon Laffitte DL #0 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Simeon Harris DB #5 | 3 |
| Ethan Tierney DB #4 | 2 | |
| Justin Johnson LB #25 | 1 |
USC leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jayden Maiava QB #14 | 131/191, 1744 YDS, 15 TD, 3 INT |
| Jonas Williams QB #15 | 12/14, 126 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | King Miller RB #8 | 95 CAR, 493 YDS, 3 TD |
| Waymond Jordan RB #2 | 57 CAR, 265 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Shahn Alston RB #22 | 17 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Kayden Dixon-Wyatt WR #17 | 25 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD |
| Zacharyus Williams WR #0 | 14 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Trent Mosley WR #4 | 13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Mark Bowman TE #19 | 21 REC, 204 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Christian Pierce S #6 | 35 |
| Deven Bryant LB #17 | 33 | |
| Luke Wafle DE #94 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Kennedy Urlacher S #9 | 2 |
| Alex Graham CB #7 | 2 | |
| Jadyn Ramos DE #95 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Prophet Brown CB #16 | 2 |
| Christian Pierce S #6 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.