The ten · Week 4

Switch to Predict and pick them, then copy the link and send it to someone who disagrees. Each game locks when it kicks off, so a card cannot be filled in after the fact, and compare picks will show you only the ones you split on.

Confidence points. In predict mode each game here carries a 1–10 box. Rank your ten and a wrong favorite costs what you said it was worth — your scorecard totals what you earned against what you staked. Leave them blank and nothing changes.

Did the rule pick good games? The ten finished 20.2 points apart on average; the other 61 games that week finished 20.0 apart. Which is the same game, on average, either way. 3 of 10 were one-score games against 18 of 61 elsewhere.

Upsets (1). The side the market did not favour won outright.

• Iowa beat Michigan 20–19

By arithmetic on the same board you can see, not by anyone's judgment of what matters. Each game scores for a ranked team (more for a higher rank), for a close betting line, for being a conference game, and for the two teams' efficiency ratings; a lopsided line scores against it however good the favorite is, and a game against an FCS opponent scores heavily against. A game whose two teams are not decided yet cannot be scored at all, and is left out. The top ten by that score make the card, in kickoff order.