Wk 7 · 2026
Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
· ESPN+
MAC · 1-5
at
12:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential BGSU by 8.2
MAC · 2-4
What is at stake
A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Ball State form
L 14-45at NUL 24-39vs TOLL 13-26at KENTL 15-51at LIBW 41-17vs STBK
2026 season
Bowling Green form
W 38-10vs SACW 24-20at M-OHL 6-14vs USFL 7-55at ISUL 7-56at NEB
2026 season
Ball State this season
Straight up1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Bowling Green this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Kent State MAC | at L 13-26 preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Toledo MAC | vs L 24-39 preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Sacramento St MAC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs W 38-10 preview |
| UMass MAC | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Buffalo MAC | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Bowling Green leads 4–1 · Bowling Green has won the last 3
5 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
12.6 points toward Bowling Green
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-11-23 | Bowling Green 38 — 13 Ball State | at BALL | Bowling Green |
| 2023 | 2023-11-01 | Ball State 21 — 24 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Bowling Green |
| 2015 | 2015-11-24 | Bowling Green 48 — 10 Ball State | at BALL | Bowling Green |
| 2014 | 2014-11-28 | Ball State 41 — 24 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Ball State |
| 2009 | 2009-10-17 | Bowling Green 31 — 17 Ball State | at BALL | Bowling Green |
Ball State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Keldric Luster QB #6 | 76/119, 662 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT |
| Tyler Mizzell QB #9 | 19/33, 209 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | TJ Horton RB #4 | 37 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jalen Bonds RB #2 | 24 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Johnny Thompson Jr. RB #20 | 24 CAR, 74 YDS | |
| Receiving | Donovan Hamilton WR #1 | 20 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jamarion McDougle WR #10 | 12 REC, 135 YDS | |
| Jabari Smith WR #5 | 12 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Isaiah Thacker WR #11 | 13 REC, 112 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Sterling Smith DB #1 | 35 |
| Cincear Lewis LB #6 | 26 | |
| Quentavius Scandrett DB #33 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Layton Starks LB #11 | 1.5 |
| Jared Badie LB #31 | 1 | |
| Ka'Shawn Thomas DT #94 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kamron Chamble DB #13 | 2 |
| Cedric Franklin II DB #18 | 1 |
Bowling Green leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jay Kastantin QB #17 | 83/128, 870 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT |
| Austin Novosad QB #16 | 1/5, -1 YDS | |
| Rushing | Austyn Dendy RB #1 | 62 CAR, 185 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nakai Amachree RB #2 | 33 CAR, 113 YDS | |
| Ke'Marion Baldwin RB #4 | 12 CAR, 50 YDS | |
| Receiving | Winn Sharp WR #18 | 15 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jeremiah Scoby TE #0 | 18 REC, 182 YDS | |
| Brennan Ridley WR #5 | 19 REC, 167 YDS | |
| Eli Jacon-Duffy TE #8 | 14 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Dorian Pringle LB #3 | 49 |
| Kal-El Pascal S #0 | 38 | |
| Preston EstoEsta S #9 | 29 | |
| Sacks | Myles Bradley DE #23 | 6.5 |
| Eriq George DE #5 | 3 | |
| Cashmire Lewis LB #8 | 3 | |
| Interceptions | JoJo Johnson CB #2 | 1 |
| Drey Braxton DB #1 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.