Wk 11 · 2026
Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals — Wed, Nov 11
Wed, Nov 11 ·
Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 30 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
MAC · 3-3
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential BUF by 2.9
MAC · 1-5
What is at stake
A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Buffalo form
W 23-8at TOLL 17-20vs WMUW 31-28vs RMUL 13-55at PSUL 20-33at FIU
2026 season
Ball State form
L 14-45at NUL 24-39vs TOLL 13-26at KENTL 15-51at LIBW 41-17vs STBK
2026 season
Buffalo this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Ball State this season
Straight up1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Buffalo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Toledo MAC | at W 23-8 preview | vs L 24-39 preview |
| UMass MAC | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Bowling Green MAC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| C Michigan MAC | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Ball State leads 7–3 · Buffalo won the last one
10 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
8.5 points toward Ball State
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-11-12 | Ball State 48 — 51 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2021 | 2021-11-23 | Buffalo 3 — 20 Ball State | at BALL | Ball State |
| 2020 | 2020-12-18 | Ball State 38 — 28 Buffalo | neutral | Ball State |
| 2017 | 2017-11-16 | Buffalo 40 — 24 Ball State | at BALL | Buffalo |
| 2016 | 2016-10-15 | Ball State 31 — 21 Buffalo | at BUF | Ball State |
| 2011 | 2011-09-17 | Buffalo 25 — 28 Ball State | at BALL | Ball State |
| 2010 | 2010-11-12 | Ball State 20 — 3 Buffalo | at BUF | Ball State |
| 2008 | 2008-12-05 | Ball State 24 — 42 Buffalo | neutral | Buffalo |
| 2007 | 2007-09-29 | Buffalo 14 — 49 Ball State | at BALL | Ball State |
| 2006 | 2006-10-07 | Ball State 55 — 25 Buffalo | at BUF | Ball State |
Buffalo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jason Wright QB #7 | 49/98, 555 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT |
| Elijah Holmes QB #16 | 35/61, 250 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Messiah Burch RB #4 | 73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nino Hill RB #0 | 41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James McNeil Jr. RB #24 | 23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Chance Morrow WR #6 | 32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD |
| Clint Walker TE #5 | 11 REC, 82 YDS | |
| Patrick Clacks III WR #3 | 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Andrews WR #2 | 10 REC, 77 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 38 |
| Miles Greer S #6 | 31 | |
| John Keough S #7 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Logan Goodwin EDGE #17 | 2 |
| SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 | |
| Stevie Bracey LB #2 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 |
Ball State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Keldric Luster QB #6 | 76/119, 662 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT |
| Tyler Mizzell QB #9 | 19/33, 209 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | TJ Horton RB #4 | 37 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jalen Bonds RB #2 | 24 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Johnny Thompson Jr. RB #20 | 24 CAR, 74 YDS | |
| Receiving | Donovan Hamilton WR #1 | 20 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jamarion McDougle WR #10 | 12 REC, 135 YDS | |
| Jabari Smith WR #5 | 12 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Isaiah Thacker WR #11 | 13 REC, 112 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Sterling Smith DB #1 | 35 |
| Cincear Lewis LB #6 | 26 | |
| Quentavius Scandrett DB #33 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Layton Starks LB #11 | 1.5 |
| Jared Badie LB #31 | 1 | |
| Ka'Shawn Thomas DT #94 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kamron Chamble DB #13 | 2 |
| Cedric Franklin II DB #18 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.