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Wk 5 · 2026

Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals — Sat, Oct 3

Sat, Oct 3 · Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN · ESPN+ FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Toledo Rockets
MAC · 4-2
39
at
2:00pET
TOL -21 · total 52.5 DraftKings opened +17.5 · 3.5 toward TOL
Ratings differential TOL by 15.6
Ball State Cardinals
MAC · 1-5
24

What is at stake

A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Toledo: -2.8#80
Efficiency margin
Ball State: -20.8#133
Toledo: 30.4
Offense (pts/100)
Ball State: 21.2
Toledo: 24.2
Defense (pts/100)
Ball State: 33.0
Toledo: 68.3
Pace (plays/g)
Ball State: 63.0
Toledo: 6.66
Yards / play
Ball State: 4.89
Toledo: 4.70
Yards / play allowed
Ball State: 6.86
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Toledo: 36.7
Points / game
Ball State: 18.3
Toledo: 25.2
Points allowed
Ball State: 39.0
Toledo: 455
Yards / game
Ball State: 308
Toledo: 330
Yards allowed
Ball State: 467
Toledo: 190
Pass yds allowed
Ball State: 248
Toledo: 140
Rush yds allowed
Ball State: 219
Toledo: 1.17
Turnovers / game
Ball State: 1.00
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Toledo form

L 8-23vs BUFW 39-24at BALLW 41-16vs SDSUW 49-48vs TEMW 63-10vs CCSU
2026 season

Ball State form

L 14-45at NUL 24-39vs TOLL 13-26at KENTL 15-51at LIBW 41-17vs STBK
2026 season

Toledo this season

Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)

Ball State this season

Straight up1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 5

OpponentToledoBall State
Buffalo
MAC
vs L 8-23 previewvs Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Sacramento St
MAC
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewvs Wk 8 · scheduled preview
UMass
MAC
vs Wk 11 · scheduled previewat Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Bowling Green
MAC
vs Wk 12 · scheduled previewat Wk 7 · scheduled preview
Ohio
MAC
at Wk 13 · scheduled previewat Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Toledo leads 13–7 · Toledo has won the last 5
20 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 5.2 points toward Toledo
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20262026-10-03Toledo 39 — 24 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20252025-11-22Ball State 9 — 38 Toledoat TOLToledo
20232023-10-14Toledo 13 — 6 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20222022-11-08Ball State 21 — 28 Toledoat TOLToledo
20212021-09-25Toledo 22 — 12 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20202020-11-28Ball State 27 — 24 Toledoat TOLBall State
20192019-10-19Toledo 14 — 52 Ball Stateat BALLBall State
20182018-10-31Ball State 13 — 45 Toledoat TOLToledo
20172017-10-26Toledo 58 — 17 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20162016-11-16Ball State 19 — 37 Toledoat TOLToledo
20152015-10-03Toledo 24 — 10 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20142014-09-20Ball State 23 — 34 Toledoat TOLToledo
20132013-09-28Toledo 24 — 31 Ball Stateat BALLBall State
20122012-11-06Ball State 34 — 27 Toledoat TOLBall State
20112011-11-25Toledo 45 — 28 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20102010-10-23Ball State 24 — 31 Toledoat TOLToledo
20092009-10-03Toledo 37 — 30 Ball Stateat BALLToledo
20082008-10-04Ball State 31 — 0 Toledoat TOLBall State
20072007-11-13Toledo 20 — 41 Ball Stateat BALLBall State
20062006-11-14Ball State 20 — 17 Toledoat TOLBall State

Toledo leaders 2026 regular season

PassingJohn Alan Richter QB #698/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT
Walter Moses QB #111/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD
RushingCJ Miller RB #2254 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD
Connor Walendzak RB #857 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD
Autavius Ison RB #439 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingAdjatay Dabbs WR #325 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD
Bryson Hammer WR #1216 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD
Rico Bond WR #111 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD
Daryl Barnett Jr. WR #1910 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesIsaac Zay LB #4441
Armorion Smith S #738
Julian Fox LB #1036
SacksAndrew Zock DE #03.5
Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT #522
Isaac Zay LB #441.5
InterceptionsIsaac Zay LB #442
Julian Fox LB #101
full roster and per-player history

Ball State leaders 2026 regular season

PassingKeldric Luster QB #676/119, 662 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT
Tyler Mizzell QB #919/33, 209 YDS, 1 TD
RushingTJ Horton RB #437 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD
Jalen Bonds RB #224 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD
Johnny Thompson Jr. RB #2024 CAR, 74 YDS
ReceivingDonovan Hamilton WR #120 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD
Jamarion McDougle WR #1012 REC, 135 YDS
Jabari Smith WR #512 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah Thacker WR #1113 REC, 112 YDS
Defense
TacklesSterling Smith DB #135
Cincear Lewis LB #626
Quentavius Scandrett DB #3325
SacksLayton Starks LB #111.5
Jared Badie LB #311
Ka'Shawn Thomas DT #941
InterceptionsKamron Chamble DB #132
Cedric Franklin II DB #181
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.