Wk 8 · 2026
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers — Fri, Oct 23
Fri, Oct 23 ·
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
· ESPN
ACC · 4-1
at
7:00pET
UVA -6.5 · total 53.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential UVA by 1.0
ACC · 4-2
What is at stake
A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Duke form
L 25-28at GTW 62-7vs W&MW 35-7vs STANW 31-27at ILLW 17-3vs TULN
2026 season
Virginia form
W 28-25vs SYRL 7-38at FSUW 42-3vs DELL 27-38vs WVUW 59-3vs NORF
2026 season
Duke this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Virginia this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina ACC | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| NC State ACC | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs W 34-8 preview |
| Wake Forest ACC | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Virginia leads 12–8 · Duke won the last one
20 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
5.1 points toward Virginia
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-12-06 | Duke 27 — 20 Virginia | neutral | Duke |
| 2025 | 2025-11-15 | Virginia 34 — 17 Duke | at DUKE | Virginia |
| 2023 | 2023-11-18 | Duke 27 — 30 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2022 | 2022-10-01 | Virginia 17 — 38 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2021 | 2021-10-16 | Duke 0 — 48 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2020 | 2020-09-26 | Duke 20 — 38 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2019 | 2019-10-19 | Duke 14 — 48 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2018 | 2018-10-20 | Virginia 28 — 14 Duke | at DUKE | Virginia |
| 2017 | 2017-10-07 | Duke 21 — 28 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2016 | 2016-10-01 | Virginia 34 — 20 Duke | at DUKE | Virginia |
| 2015 | 2015-11-21 | Duke 34 — 42 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2014 | 2014-10-18 | Virginia 13 — 20 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2013 | 2013-10-19 | Duke 35 — 22 Virginia | at UVA | Duke |
| 2012 | 2012-10-06 | Virginia 17 — 42 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2011 | 2011-11-12 | Duke 21 — 31 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2010 | 2010-11-06 | Virginia 48 — 55 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2009 | 2009-10-31 | Duke 28 — 17 Virginia | at UVA | Duke |
| 2008 | 2008-09-27 | Virginia 3 — 31 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2007 | 2007-09-08 | Duke 13 — 24 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | Virginia 37 — 0 Duke | at DUKE | Virginia |
Duke leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Walker Eget QB #2 | 58/93, 721 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT |
| Dan Mahan QB #10 | 6/9, 126 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Nate Sheppard RB #20 | 91 CAR, 644 YDS, 6 TD |
| CJ Campbell Jr. RB #0 | 36 CAR, 139 YDS | |
| Jayvian Tanelus RB #22 | 16 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Jeremiah Hasley TE #85 | 13 REC, 195 YDS |
| Jonah Burton WR #6 | 13 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaivon Solomon WR #4 | 5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jared Richardson WR #17 | 5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Nick Morris Jr. LB #7 | 23 |
| Andrew Pellicciotta S #35 | 22 | |
| Dylan Flowers CB #0 | 19 | |
| Sacks | Bradley Gompers LB #24 | 3 |
| Kevin O'Connor DE #15 | 2 | |
| Bryce Davis DE #12 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Evan Smith CB #4 | 1 |
Virginia leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Beau Pribula QB #7 | 80/118, 961 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT |
| Eli Holstein QB #10 | 12/18, 180 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Jekail Middlebrook RB #21 | 50 CAR, 242 YDS, 1 TD |
| Xavier Brown RB #0 | 31 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Xay Davis RB #25 | 32 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Kameron Courtney WR #5 | 15 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD |
| Rico Flores Jr. WR #11 | 11 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Da'Shawn Martin WR #18 | 11 REC, 148 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Josiah Abdullah WR #13 | 4 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Jacobie Henderson CB #10 | 27 |
| Myles Brown LB #13 | 23 | |
| Fisher Camac DE #14 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Matthew Fobbs-White DE #16 | 3 |
| Nnanna Anyanwu DE #33 | 2 | |
| Fisher Camac DE #14 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Brandyn Hillman S #6 | 3 |
| Keke Adams S #21 | 2 | |
| Corey Costner S #4 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.