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Wk 10 · 2026

Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack — Sat, Nov 7

Sat, Nov 7 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 26 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Duke Blue Devils
ACC · 4-1
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential DUKE by 2.6
NC State Wolfpack
ACC · 3-3

What is at stake

A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Duke: +6.5#42
Efficiency margin
NC State: +1.5#64
Duke: 34.4
Offense (pts/100)
NC State: 33.7
Duke: 18.9
Defense (pts/100)
NC State: 23.1
Duke: 70.6
Pace (plays/g)
NC State: 71.0
Duke: 6.47
Yards / play
NC State: 6.00
Duke: 4.95
Yards / play allowed
NC State: 6.06
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Duke: 34.0
Points / game
NC State: 33.0
Duke: 14.4
Points allowed
NC State: 27.7
Duke: 457
Yards / game
NC State: 426
Duke: 286
Yards allowed
NC State: 364
Duke: 202
Pass yds allowed
NC State: 230
Duke: 84
Rush yds allowed
NC State: 134
Duke: 0.40
Turnovers / game
NC State: 1.50
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Duke form

L 25-28at GTW 62-7vs W&MW 35-7vs STANW 31-27at ILLW 17-3vs TULN
2026 season

NC State form

L 14-38vs WAKEW 31-28vs LOUW 41-31vs APPL 31-35at VANW 73-0vs RICH
2026 season

Duke this season

Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)

NC State this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 4

OpponentDukeNC State
Stanford
ACC
vs W 35-7 previewat Wk 8 · scheduled preview
North Carolina
ACC
vs Wk 7 · scheduled previewat Wk 13 · scheduled preview
Virginia
ACC
at Wk 8 · scheduled previewat L 8-34 preview
Wake Forest
ACC
at Wk 13 · scheduled previewvs L 14-38 preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Duke leads 5–2 · Duke has won the last 3
7 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 8.7 points toward Duke
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20252025-09-20NC State 33 — 45 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20242024-11-09Duke 29 — 19 NC Stateat NCSUDuke
20232023-10-14NC State 3 — 24 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20202020-10-17Duke 20 — 31 NC Stateat NCSUNC State
20132013-11-09NC State 20 — 38 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20092009-10-10Duke 49 — 28 NC Stateat NCSUDuke
20082008-11-08NC State 27 — 17 Dukeat DUKENC State

Duke leaders 2026 regular season

PassingWalker Eget QB #258/93, 721 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Dan Mahan QB #106/9, 126 YDS, 3 TD
RushingNate Sheppard RB #2091 CAR, 644 YDS, 6 TD
CJ Campbell Jr. RB #036 CAR, 139 YDS
Jayvian Tanelus RB #2216 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
ReceivingJeremiah Hasley TE #8513 REC, 195 YDS
Jonah Burton WR #613 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD
Jaivon Solomon WR #45 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Jared Richardson WR #175 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesNick Morris Jr. LB #723
Andrew Pellicciotta S #3522
Dylan Flowers CB #019
SacksBradley Gompers LB #243
Kevin O'Connor DE #152
Bryce Davis DE #122
InterceptionsEvan Smith CB #41
full roster and per-player history

NC State leaders 2026 regular season

PassingCJ Bailey QB #1198/150, 1266 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT
Will Wilson QB #108/11, 33 YDS, 1 TD
RushingJayden Scott RB #162 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD
Davion Gause RB #746 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD
Will Wilson QB #1035 CAR, 166 YDS, 6 TD
ReceivingKeenan Jackson WR #822 REC, 339 YDS, 5 TD
Preston Douglas TE #1919 REC, 241 YDS, 1 TD
Joshisa Trader WR #216 REC, 221 YDS
Davion Gause RB #710 REC, 117 YDS
Defense
TacklesPopo Aguirre LB #042
Brian Nelson II CB #724
Ronnie Royal III S #218
SacksElijah Satchell LB #582
Harvey Dyson III LB #51.5
Chase Bond DE #921
InterceptionsJackson Vick CB #221
Brody Barnhardt S #291
Jaren Sensabaugh CB #141
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.