Wk 7 · 2026
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
· ESPN2
ACC · 3-2
at
3:30pET
DUKE -3 · total 47.5 DraftKings opened -4.5 · 1.5 toward UNC
Ratings differential DUKE by 4.8
ACC · 4-1
What is at stake
Victory Bell. Basketball's most famous rivalry has a football trophy too — an old railroad bell on a wheeled cart that the winning students push off the field. They play for the Victory Bell. A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
North Carolina form
W 21-17at PITTL 26-37vs NDL 20-28at CLEMW 35-3vs ETSUW 15-10at TCU
2026 season
Duke form
L 25-28at GTW 62-7vs W&MW 35-7vs STANW 31-27at ILLW 17-3vs TULN
2026 season
North Carolina this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Duke this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson ACC | at L 20-28 preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Miami ACC | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Virginia ACC | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| NC State ACC | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, North Carolina leads 13–7 · Duke has won the last 2
20 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
7.5 points toward North Carolina
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-11-22 | Duke 32 — 25 North Carolina | at UNC | Duke |
| 2024 | 2024-09-28 | North Carolina 20 — 21 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2023 | 2023-11-11 | Duke 45 — 47 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2022 | 2022-10-15 | North Carolina 38 — 35 Duke | at DUKE | North Carolina |
| 2021 | 2021-10-02 | Duke 7 — 38 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2020 | 2020-11-07 | North Carolina 56 — 24 Duke | at DUKE | North Carolina |
| 2019 | 2019-10-26 | Duke 17 — 20 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2018 | 2018-11-10 | North Carolina 35 — 42 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2017 | 2017-09-23 | Duke 27 — 17 North Carolina | at UNC | Duke |
| 2016 | 2016-11-10 | North Carolina 27 — 28 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2015 | 2015-11-07 | Duke 31 — 66 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2014 | 2014-11-20 | North Carolina 45 — 20 Duke | at DUKE | North Carolina |
| 2013 | 2013-11-30 | Duke 27 — 25 North Carolina | at UNC | Duke |
| 2012 | 2012-10-20 | North Carolina 30 — 33 Duke | at DUKE | Duke |
| 2011 | 2011-11-26 | Duke 21 — 37 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2010 | 2010-11-27 | North Carolina 24 — 19 Duke | at DUKE | North Carolina |
| 2009 | 2009-11-07 | Duke 6 — 19 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2008 | 2008-11-29 | North Carolina 28 — 20 Duke | at DUKE | North Carolina |
| 2007 | 2007-11-24 | Duke 14 — 20 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2006 | 2006-11-25 | North Carolina 45 — 44 Duke | at DUKE | North Carolina |
North Carolina leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Billy Edwards Jr. QB #9 | 61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Miles O'Neill QB #8 | 3/6, 22 YDS | |
| Rushing | Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 43 CAR, 251 YDS |
| Demon June RB #0 | 31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jaylen McGill RB #27 | 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 20 REC, 273 YDS |
| Jelani Thurman TE #45 | 16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD | |
| C.J. Sadler WR #14 | 5 REC, 87 YDS | |
| Trech Kekahuna WR #2 | 6 REC, 71 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derek McDonald LB #15 | 36 |
| Peyton Seelmann LB #10 | 31 | |
| Leroy Jackson DL #91 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Xavier Lewis DL #90 | 6 |
| Jaylen Harvey DL #11 | 2 | |
| Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Greg Smith DB #1 | 2 |
Duke leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Walker Eget QB #2 | 58/93, 721 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT |
| Dan Mahan QB #10 | 6/9, 126 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Nate Sheppard RB #20 | 91 CAR, 644 YDS, 6 TD |
| CJ Campbell Jr. RB #0 | 36 CAR, 139 YDS | |
| Jayvian Tanelus RB #22 | 16 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Jeremiah Hasley TE #85 | 13 REC, 195 YDS |
| Jonah Burton WR #6 | 13 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaivon Solomon WR #4 | 5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jared Richardson WR #17 | 5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Nick Morris Jr. LB #7 | 23 |
| Andrew Pellicciotta S #35 | 22 | |
| Dylan Flowers CB #0 | 19 | |
| Sacks | Bradley Gompers LB #24 | 3 |
| Kevin O'Connor DE #15 | 2 | |
| Bryce Davis DE #12 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Evan Smith CB #4 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.