Wk 7 · 2026
Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Broadview Stadium, Buffalo, NY
· ESPN+
MAC · 4-2
at
1:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential BUF by 3.2
MAC · 3-3
What is at stake
A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
UMass form
L 19-20vs M-OHL 14-38vs EMUW 35-6at SACW 36-14vs STOW 37-10vs SHU
2026 season
Buffalo form
W 23-8at TOLL 17-20vs WMUW 31-28vs RMUL 13-55at PSUL 20-33at FIU
2026 season
UMass this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Buffalo this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | UMass | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Miami OH MAC | vs L 19-20 preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Ball State MAC | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Toledo MAC | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at W 23-8 preview |
| Akron MAC | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Bowling Green MAC | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Buffalo leads 6–1 · Buffalo has won the last 3
7 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
17.0 points toward Buffalo
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-10-18 | Buffalo 28 — 21 UMass | at MASS | Buffalo |
| 2024 | 2024-09-14 | UMass 3 — 34 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2022 | 2022-10-15 | Buffalo 34 — 7 UMass | at MASS | Buffalo |
| 2015 | 2015-11-27 | UMass 31 — 26 Buffalo | at BUF | UMass |
| 2014 | 2014-11-28 | Buffalo 41 — 21 UMass | at MASS | Buffalo |
| 2013 | 2013-10-19 | UMass 3 — 32 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2012 | 2012-11-17 | Buffalo 29 — 19 UMass | at MASS | Buffalo |
UMass leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | William Watson III QB #5 | 74/100, 820 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT |
| Aedan McCarthy QB #13 | 2/4, 11 YDS | |
| Rushing | Curtis Kimmons IV RB #14 | 45 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD |
| Elijah Faulkner RB #23 | 52 CAR, 246 YDS | |
| William Watson III QB #5 | 30 CAR, 167 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Receiving | T.Y. Harding WR #2 | 19 REC, 236 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jabari Lewis WR #19 | 10 REC, 152 YDS | |
| Joseph Griffin Jr. WR #1 | 8 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Max Dowling TE #11 | 11 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Timmy Hinspeter LB #44 | 40 |
| Tyler Martin LB #5 | 29 | |
| Kendall Bournes S #3 | 29 | |
| Sacks | William DePaepe DL #98 | 2 |
| Joshua Nobles DL #2 | 1.5 | |
| Hollis Dirstine DL #95 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Jahmad Harmon S #22 | 3 |
| Isaiah Reed CB #0 | 1 | |
| Timmy Hinspeter LB #44 | 1 |
Buffalo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jason Wright QB #7 | 49/98, 555 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT |
| Elijah Holmes QB #16 | 35/61, 250 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Messiah Burch RB #4 | 73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nino Hill RB #0 | 41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James McNeil Jr. RB #24 | 23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Chance Morrow WR #6 | 32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD |
| Clint Walker TE #5 | 11 REC, 82 YDS | |
| Patrick Clacks III WR #3 | 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Andrews WR #2 | 10 REC, 77 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 38 |
| Miles Greer S #6 | 31 | |
| John Keough S #7 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Logan Goodwin EDGE #17 | 2 |
| SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 | |
| Stevie Bracey LB #2 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.