Wk 12 · 2026
Oregon Ducks at Michigan State Spartans — Fri, Nov 20
Fri, Nov 20 ·
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
· Fox
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 40 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
#13 Oregon Ducks
Big Ten · 3-2
at
8:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential ORE by 15.5
Big Ten · 2-4
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Oregon is ranked #13 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Oregon form
L 15-17vs UCLAW 41-27at USCW 84-0vs PRSTL 31-39at OKSTW 34-27vs BOIS
2026 season
Michigan St form
L 37-38vs ILLL 3-31at WISL 13-31vs NEBL 10-27at NDW 35-7vs EMU
2026 season
Oregon this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Michigan St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-2-1 · 60% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | Oregon | Michigan St |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA Big Ten | vs L 15-17 preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Nebraska Big Ten | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs L 13-31 preview |
| Illinois Big Ten | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs L 37-38 preview |
| Northwestern Big Ten | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Michigan Big Ten | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Washington Big Ten | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Oregon leads 3–1 · Oregon has won the last 2
4 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
9.5 points toward Oregon
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-10-04 | Michigan St 10 — 31 Oregon | at ORE | Oregon |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | Michigan St 6 — 7 Oregon | neutral | Oregon bowl/CFP |
| 2015 | 2015-09-12 | Oregon 28 — 31 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2014 | 2014-09-06 | Michigan St 27 — 46 Oregon | at ORE | Oregon |
Oregon leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Dante Moore QB #5 | 69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD |
| Dylan Raiola QB #8 | 30/36, 413 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Rushing | Jordon Davison RB #0 | 49 CAR, 260 YDS, 5 TD |
| Dierre Hill Jr. RB #6 | 42 CAR, 184 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Brandon Smith RB #26 | 16 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Evan Stewart WR #7 | 22 REC, 278 YDS, 3 TD |
| Dakorien Moore WR #1 | 14 REC, 234 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jamari Johnson TE #9 | 11 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jeremiah McClellan WR #3 | 7 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Koi Perich DB #3 | 24 |
| Devon Jackson LB #9 | 23 | |
| Teitum Tuioti LB #44 | 18 | |
| Sacks | Matayo Uiagalelei LB #10 | 3 |
| Bear Alexander DL #1 | 2 | |
| Teitum Tuioti LB #44 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Jett Washington DB #24 | 2 |
| Devon Jackson LB #9 | 1 | |
| Matayo Uiagalelei LB #10 | 1 |
Michigan St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Cam Fancher QB #2 | 8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Cam Edwards RB #0 | 64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD |
| Jaziun Patterson RB #4 | 44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Marvis Parrish RB #21 | 29 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Rodney Bullard Jr. WR #3 | 15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Savoury TE #31 | 17 REC, 179 YDS | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 18 REC, 150 YDS | |
| Fredrick Moore WR #6 | 14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Devin Vaught S #2 | 33 |
| Dion Crawford LB #18 | 23 | |
| Brady Pretzlaff LB #45 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Eli Coenen DL #96 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith EDGE #13 | 1 | |
| Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.