Wk 7 · 2026
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Big Ten · 3-3
at
3:30pET
MICH -6 · total 43.5 DraftKings opened -6.5 · 0.5 toward PSU
Ratings differential MICH by 0.3
Big Ten · 3-2
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Penn State form
L 23-31vs USCL 13-34at NUL 20-24vs WISW 55-13vs BUFW 27-9at TEM
2026 season
Michigan form
L 14-20at MINNL 19-20vs IOWAW 52-17vs UTEPW 17-10vs OUW 13-12vs WMU
2026 season
Penn State this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Michigan this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 2
| Opponent | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Big Ten | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at L 14-20 preview |
| Rutgers Big Ten | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Michigan leads 9–7 · Michigan has won the last 3
16 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
1.7 points toward Michigan
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2023-11-11 | Michigan 24 — 15 Penn State | at PSU | Michigan |
| 2022 | 2022-10-15 | Penn State 17 — 41 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2021 | 2021-11-13 | Michigan 21 — 17 Penn State | at PSU | Michigan |
| 2020 | 2020-11-28 | Penn State 27 — 17 Michigan | at MICH | Penn State |
| 2019 | 2019-10-19 | Michigan 21 — 28 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2018 | 2018-11-03 | Penn State 7 — 42 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2017 | 2017-10-21 | Michigan 13 — 42 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2016 | 2016-09-24 | Penn State 10 — 49 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2015 | 2015-11-21 | Michigan 28 — 16 Penn State | at PSU | Michigan |
| 2014 | 2014-10-11 | Penn State 13 — 18 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2013 | 2013-10-12 | Michigan 40 — 43 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2010 | 2010-10-30 | Michigan 31 — 41 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2009 | 2009-10-24 | Penn State 35 — 10 Michigan | at MICH | Penn State |
| 2008 | 2008-10-18 | Michigan 17 — 46 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2007 | 2007-09-22 | Penn State 9 — 14 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2006 | 2006-10-14 | Michigan 17 — 10 Penn State | at PSU | Michigan |
Penn State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Rocco Becht QB #3 | 83/134, 1108 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| Alex Manske QB #7 | 9/14, 102 YDS | |
| Rushing | James Peoples RB #1 | 45 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD |
| Carson Hansen RB #21 | 43 CAR, 199 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Quinton Martin Jr. RB #25 | 29 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Koby Howard WR #6 | 12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD |
| Chase Sowell WR #0 | 19 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Benjamin Brahmer TE #18 | 16 REC, 178 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Brett Eskildsen WR #4 | 15 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Tony Rojas LB #13 | 34 |
| Kooper Ebel LB #8 | 29 | |
| Cael Brezina LB #9 | 20 | |
| Sacks | Tony Rojas LB #13 | 3 |
| Kooper Ebel LB #8 | 1 | |
| Caleb Bacon LB #10 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Tony Rojas LB #13 | 2 |
| Daryus Dixson CB #5 | 1 | |
| Josiah Zayas CB #17 | 1 |
Michigan leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Bryce Underwood QB #19 | 67/113, 881 YDS, 5 TD, 4 INT |
| Tommy Carr QB #14 | 2/2, 23 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Jordan Marshall RB #23 | 55 CAR, 244 YDS, 3 TD |
| Bryce Underwood QB #19 | 57 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Savion Hiter RB #5 | 46 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | JJ Buchanan WR #6 | 24 REC, 446 YDS, 4 TD |
| Andrew Marsh WR #3 | 25 REC, 268 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Savion Hiter RB #5 | 5 REC, 59 YDS | |
| Hogan Hansen TE #80 | 5 REC, 35 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Troy Bowles LB #18 | 40 |
| Jyaire Hill CB #0 | 25 | |
| Nathaniel Staehling LB #44 | 25 | |
| Sacks | John Henry Daley DE #90 | 3 |
| Dom Nichols DE #8 | 2.5 | |
| Nate Marshall DE #94 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Jonah Lea'ea DT #91 | 1 |
| Smith Snowden CB #3 | 1 | |
| Jyaire Hill CB #0 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.