Wk 5 · 2026
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
· Fox FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:00pET
MICH -6.5 · total 41.5 DraftKings opened +8.5 · 2 toward MINN
Ratings differential MICH by 3.6
What is at stake
Little Brown Jug. College football's oldest trophy — a five-gallon water jug Michigan left behind in 1903 and Minnesota refused to give back. They play for the Little Brown Jug. A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Michigan form
L 14-20at MINNL 19-20vs IOWAW 52-17vs UTEPW 17-10vs OUW 13-12vs WMU
2026 season
Minnesota form
L 13-41at PURW 20-14vs MICHW 27-24at WASHW 41-7vs AKRL 13-38vs MSST
2026 season
Michigan this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Minnesota this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Michigan | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa Big Ten | vs L 19-20 preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Penn State Big Ten | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Indiana Big Ten | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| UCLA Big Ten | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Michigan leads 11–2 · Minnesota won the last one
13 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
18.8 points toward Michigan
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | Michigan 14 — 20 Minnesota | at MINN | Minnesota |
| 2024 | 2024-09-28 | Minnesota 24 — 27 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2023 | 2023-10-07 | Michigan 52 — 10 Minnesota | at MINN | Michigan |
| 2020 | 2020-10-24 | Michigan 49 — 24 Minnesota | at MINN | Michigan |
| 2017 | 2017-11-04 | Minnesota 10 — 33 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2015 | 2015-10-31 | Michigan 29 — 26 Minnesota | at MINN | Michigan |
| 2014 | 2014-09-27 | Minnesota 30 — 14 Michigan | at MICH | Minnesota |
| 2013 | 2013-10-05 | Minnesota 13 — 42 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2012 | 2012-11-03 | Michigan 35 — 13 Minnesota | at MINN | Michigan |
| 2011 | 2011-10-01 | Minnesota 0 — 58 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2008 | 2008-11-08 | Michigan 29 — 6 Minnesota | at MINN | Michigan |
| 2007 | 2007-10-27 | Minnesota 10 — 34 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | Michigan 28 — 14 Minnesota | at MINN | Michigan |
Michigan leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Bryce Underwood QB #19 | 67/113, 881 YDS, 5 TD, 4 INT |
| Tommy Carr QB #14 | 2/2, 23 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Jordan Marshall RB #23 | 55 CAR, 244 YDS, 3 TD |
| Bryce Underwood QB #19 | 57 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Savion Hiter RB #5 | 46 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | JJ Buchanan WR #6 | 24 REC, 446 YDS, 4 TD |
| Andrew Marsh WR #3 | 25 REC, 268 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Savion Hiter RB #5 | 5 REC, 59 YDS | |
| Hogan Hansen TE #80 | 5 REC, 35 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Troy Bowles LB #18 | 40 |
| Jyaire Hill CB #0 | 25 | |
| Nathaniel Staehling LB #44 | 25 | |
| Sacks | John Henry Daley DE #90 | 3 |
| Dom Nichols DE #8 | 2.5 | |
| Nate Marshall DE #94 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Jonah Lea'ea DT #91 | 1 |
| Smith Snowden CB #3 | 1 | |
| Jyaire Hill CB #0 | 1 |
Minnesota leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Drake Lindsey QB #5 | 105/157, 1087 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT |
| Max Shikenjanski QB #6 | 3/3, 50 YDS | |
| Rushing | TJ Thomas RB #23 | 46 CAR, 307 YDS, 1 TD |
| Darius Taylor RB #1 | 57 CAR, 139 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Xavier Ford RB #9 | 17 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Noah Jennings WR #13 | 26 REC, 345 YDS, 1 TD |
| Javon Tracy WR #11 | 27 REC, 300 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jalen Smith WR #8 | 12 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Darius Taylor RB #1 | 11 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Maverick Baranowski LB #6 | 34 |
| Kerry Brown DB #14 | 25 | |
| Zack Harden DB #4 | 25 | |
| Sacks | TJ Bush Jr. DL #3 | 4 |
| Karter Menz DL #11 | 3 | |
| Anthony Smith DL #0 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Maverick Baranowski LB #6 | 1 |
| John Nestor DB #17 | 1 | |
| Zack Harden DB #4 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.