Wk 5 · 2026
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats — Fri, Oct 2
Fri, Oct 2 ·
Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
· Fox FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
8:00pET
PSU -2.5 · total 46.5 DraftKings opened +7 · 4.5 toward NU
Ratings differential NU by 5.2
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Penn State form
L 23-31vs USCL 13-34at NUL 20-24vs WISW 55-13vs BUFW 27-9at TEM
2026 season
Northwestern form
W 45-14vs BALLW 34-13vs PSUL 23-29at IUW 41-7vs COLOW 34-18vs SDST
2026 season
Penn State this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Northwestern this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 2
| Opponent | Penn State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Big Ten | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Rutgers Big Ten | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Penn State leads 8–4 · Northwestern has won the last 2
12 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
8.1 points toward Penn State
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-02 | Penn State 13 — 34 Northwestern | at NU | Northwestern |
| 2025 | 2025-10-11 | Northwestern 22 — 21 Penn State | at PSU | Northwestern |
| 2023 | 2023-09-30 | Penn State 41 — 13 Northwestern | at NU | Penn State |
| 2022 | 2022-10-01 | Northwestern 7 — 17 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2017 | 2017-10-07 | Penn State 31 — 7 Northwestern | at NU | Penn State |
| 2015 | 2015-11-07 | Penn State 21 — 23 Northwestern | at NU | Northwestern |
| 2014 | 2014-09-27 | Northwestern 29 — 6 Penn State | at PSU | Northwestern |
| 2012 | 2012-10-06 | Northwestern 28 — 39 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2011 | 2011-10-22 | Penn State 34 — 24 Northwestern | at NU | Penn State |
| 2010 | 2010-11-06 | Northwestern 21 — 35 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
| 2009 | 2009-10-31 | Penn State 34 — 13 Northwestern | at NU | Penn State |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | Northwestern 7 — 33 Penn State | at PSU | Penn State |
Penn State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Rocco Becht QB #3 | 83/134, 1108 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| Alex Manske QB #7 | 9/14, 102 YDS | |
| Rushing | James Peoples RB #1 | 45 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD |
| Carson Hansen RB #21 | 43 CAR, 199 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Quinton Martin Jr. RB #25 | 29 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Koby Howard WR #6 | 12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD |
| Chase Sowell WR #0 | 19 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Benjamin Brahmer TE #18 | 16 REC, 178 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Brett Eskildsen WR #4 | 15 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Tony Rojas LB #13 | 34 |
| Kooper Ebel LB #8 | 29 | |
| Cael Brezina LB #9 | 20 | |
| Sacks | Tony Rojas LB #13 | 3 |
| Kooper Ebel LB #8 | 1 | |
| Caleb Bacon LB #10 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Tony Rojas LB #13 | 2 |
| Daryus Dixson CB #5 | 1 | |
| Josiah Zayas CB #17 | 1 |
Northwestern leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Aidan Chiles QB #0 | 63/89, 900 YDS, 6 TD |
| Rushing | Caleb Komolafe RB #5 | 52 CAR, 290 YDS, 2 TD |
| Joseph Himon II RB #6 | 20 CAR, 277 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Gavin Sawchuk RB #27 | 33 CAR, 170 YDS | |
| Receiving | Griffin Wilde WR #17 | 16 REC, 281 YDS, 2 TD |
| Luke Dehnicke TE #84 | 11 REC, 208 YDS | |
| Alex Honig TE #86 | 7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Drew Wagner WR #19 | 12 REC, 97 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Robert Fitzgerald DB #6 | 42 |
| Kobie McKinzie LB #2 | 32 | |
| Braydon Brus LB #33 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Braydon Brus LB #33 | 3 |
| Kobie McKinzie LB #2 | 1 | |
| Jamaal Johnson DL #24 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Ore Adeyi DB #7 | 1 |
| Robert Fitzgerald DB #6 | 1 | |
| Braydon Brus LB #33 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.