Wk 5 · 2026
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Broadview Stadium, Buffalo, NY
· ESPN+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
1:00pET
WMU -13.5 · total 45.5 DraftKings opened +16.5 · 3 toward BUF
Ratings differential WMU by 11.2
What is at stake
A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
W Michigan form
W 38-7vs KENTW 20-17at BUFL 7-32vs BOISW 28-21at RICEW 49-14vs MONM
2026 season
Buffalo form
W 23-8at TOLL 17-20vs WMUW 31-28vs RMUL 13-55at PSUL 20-33at FIU
2026 season
W Michigan this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Buffalo this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | W Michigan | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| C Michigan MAC | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Toledo MAC | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at W 23-8 preview |
| Bowling Green MAC | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Akron MAC | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Miami OH MAC | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, W Michigan leads 7–2 · W Michigan has won the last 5
9 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
3.2 points toward W Michigan
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | W Michigan 20 — 17 Buffalo | at BUF | W Michigan |
| 2024 | 2024-10-19 | W Michigan 48 — 41 Buffalo | at BUF | W Michigan |
| 2021 | 2021-10-02 | W Michigan 24 — 17 Buffalo | at BUF | W Michigan |
| 2017 | 2017-10-07 | W Michigan 71 — 68 Buffalo | at BUF | W Michigan |
| 2016 | 2016-11-19 | Buffalo 0 — 38 W Michigan | at WMU | W Michigan |
| 2013 | 2013-10-12 | Buffalo 33 — 0 W Michigan | at WMU | Buffalo |
| 2012 | 2012-11-10 | W Michigan 24 — 29 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2009 | 2009-10-24 | Buffalo 31 — 34 W Michigan | at WMU | W Michigan |
| 2008 | 2008-10-11 | W Michigan 34 — 28 Buffalo | at BUF | W Michigan |
W Michigan leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Broc Lowry QB #12 | 77/113, 739 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT |
| Trey Petty QB #10 | 4/6, 54 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Jalen Buckley RB #6 | 62 CAR, 287 YDS, 5 TD |
| Broc Lowry QB #12 | 56 CAR, 170 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Ofa Mataele RB #24 | 32 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Aveion Chenault WR #2 | 18 REC, 272 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nate Levicki TE #88 | 8 REC, 112 YDS | |
| Baylin Brooks WR #7 | 14 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Egypt Nelson WR #8 | 11 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Justyce Betts LB #10 | 35 |
| Domanick Moon LB #47 | 31 | |
| Dillon Moore LB #12 | 31 | |
| Sacks | Dillon Moore LB #12 | 1.5 |
| KJ Burley DE #15 | 1.5 | |
| Domanick Moon LB #47 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Dillon Moore LB #12 | 1 |
Buffalo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jason Wright QB #7 | 49/98, 555 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT |
| Elijah Holmes QB #16 | 35/61, 250 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Messiah Burch RB #4 | 73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nino Hill RB #0 | 41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James McNeil Jr. RB #24 | 23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Chance Morrow WR #6 | 32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD |
| Clint Walker TE #5 | 11 REC, 82 YDS | |
| Patrick Clacks III WR #3 | 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Andrews WR #2 | 10 REC, 77 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 38 |
| Miles Greer S #6 | 31 | |
| John Keough S #7 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Logan Goodwin EDGE #17 | 2 |
| SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 | |
| Stevie Bracey LB #2 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.