Wk 1 · 2026
Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans — Fri, Sep 4
Fri, Sep 4 ·
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
· FS1 FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
8:00pET
MSU -10 · total 48.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential MSU by 7.2
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Toledo form
L 8-23vs BUFW 39-24at BALLW 41-16vs SDSUW 49-48vs TEMW 63-10vs CCSU
2026 season
Michigan St form
L 37-38vs ILLL 3-31at WISL 13-31vs NEBL 10-27at NDW 35-7vs EMU
2026 season
Toledo this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Michigan St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-2-1 · 60% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 1
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Michigan St leads 1–0 · Michigan St won the last one
1 meeting
in 2006–2026 · average margin
10.0 points toward Michigan St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-04 | Toledo 20 — 30 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
Toledo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | John Alan Richter QB #6 | 98/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT |
| Walter Moses QB #11 | 1/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | CJ Miller RB #22 | 54 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD |
| Connor Walendzak RB #8 | 57 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Autavius Ison RB #4 | 39 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Adjatay Dabbs WR #3 | 25 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD |
| Bryson Hammer WR #12 | 16 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rico Bond WR #1 | 11 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Daryl Barnett Jr. WR #19 | 10 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Isaac Zay LB #44 | 41 |
| Armorion Smith S #7 | 38 | |
| Julian Fox LB #10 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Andrew Zock DE #0 | 3.5 |
| Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT #52 | 2 | |
| Isaac Zay LB #44 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Isaac Zay LB #44 | 2 |
| Julian Fox LB #10 | 1 |
Michigan St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Cam Fancher QB #2 | 8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Cam Edwards RB #0 | 64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD |
| Jaziun Patterson RB #4 | 44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Marvis Parrish RB #21 | 29 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Rodney Bullard Jr. WR #3 | 15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Savoury TE #31 | 17 REC, 179 YDS | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 18 REC, 150 YDS | |
| Fredrick Moore WR #6 | 14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Devin Vaught S #2 | 33 |
| Dion Crawford LB #18 | 23 | |
| Brady Pretzlaff LB #45 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Eli Coenen DL #96 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith EDGE #13 | 1 | |
| Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.