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Wk 7 · 2026

Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles — Sat, Oct 17

Sat, Oct 17 · Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, MI · ESPN+

Weather at kickoff

41°F overcast
5% chance of precipitation · wind 20 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
Toledo Rockets
MAC · 4-2
at
3:30pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential TOL by 8.7
Eastern Michigan Eagles
MAC · 4-3

What is at stake

A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Toledo: -2.8#80
Efficiency margin
E Michigan: -13.9#120
Toledo: 30.4
Offense (pts/100)
E Michigan: 23.2
Toledo: 24.2
Defense (pts/100)
E Michigan: 28.1
Toledo: 68.3
Pace (plays/g)
E Michigan: 66.4
Toledo: 6.66
Yards / play
E Michigan: 4.91
Toledo: 4.70
Yards / play allowed
E Michigan: 5.85
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Toledo: 36.7
Points / game
E Michigan: 22.6
Toledo: 25.2
Points allowed
E Michigan: 24.7
Toledo: 455
Yards / game
E Michigan: 326
Toledo: 330
Yards allowed
E Michigan: 365
Toledo: 190
Pass yds allowed
E Michigan: 230
Toledo: 140
Rush yds allowed
E Michigan: 135
Toledo: 1.17
Turnovers / game
E Michigan: 1.14
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Toledo form

L 8-23vs BUFW 39-24at BALLW 41-16vs SDSUW 49-48vs TEMW 63-10vs CCSU
2026 season

E Michigan form

W 25-23at AKRW 38-14at MASSW 29-3vs LINL 10-54at WISL 7-35at MSU
2026 season

Toledo this season

Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)

E Michigan this season

Straight up4-3 · 57% (7 games)
Against the spread3-4 · 43% (7 games)
Over / under2-5 · 29% (7 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 5

OpponentToledoE Michigan
Michigan St
Big Ten
at L 20-30 previewat L 7-35 preview
W Michigan
MAC
vs Wk 8 · scheduled previewat Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Sacramento St
MAC
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewvs W 28-17 preview
UMass
MAC
vs Wk 11 · scheduled previewat W 38-14 preview
Ohio
MAC
at Wk 13 · scheduled previewat Wk 8 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Toledo leads 16–3 · Toledo has won the last 3
19 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 17.4 points toward Toledo
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20242024-11-02Toledo 29 — 28 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20232023-11-08E Michigan 23 — 49 Toledoat TOLToledo
20222022-10-29Toledo 27 — 24 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20212021-11-02E Michigan 52 — 49 Toledoat TOLE Michigan
20202020-11-18Toledo 45 — 28 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20192019-10-26E Michigan 34 — 37 Toledoat TOLToledo
20182018-10-13Toledo 26 — 28 E Michiganat EMUE Michigan
20172017-10-07E Michigan 15 — 20 Toledoat TOLToledo
20162016-10-08Toledo 35 — 20 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20152015-10-17E Michigan 20 — 63 Toledoat TOLToledo
20142014-11-28Toledo 52 — 16 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20132013-11-02E Michigan 16 — 55 Toledoat TOLToledo
20122012-10-13Toledo 52 — 47 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20112011-10-08E Michigan 16 — 54 Toledoat TOLToledo
20102010-10-30Toledo 42 — 7 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20092009-11-20E Michigan 21 — 47 Toledoat TOLToledo
20082008-09-13Toledo 41 — 17 E Michiganat EMUToledo
20072007-11-03E Michigan 28 — 52 Toledoat TOLToledo
20062006-10-21Toledo 13 — 17 E Michiganat EMUE Michigan

Toledo leaders 2026 regular season

PassingJohn Alan Richter QB #698/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT
Walter Moses QB #111/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD
RushingCJ Miller RB #2254 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD
Connor Walendzak RB #857 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD
Autavius Ison RB #439 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingAdjatay Dabbs WR #325 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD
Bryson Hammer WR #1216 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD
Rico Bond WR #111 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD
Daryl Barnett Jr. WR #1910 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesIsaac Zay LB #4441
Armorion Smith S #738
Julian Fox LB #1036
SacksAndrew Zock DE #03.5
Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT #522
Isaac Zay LB #441.5
InterceptionsIsaac Zay LB #442
Julian Fox LB #101
full roster and per-player history

E Michigan leaders 2026 regular season

PassingNoah Kim QB #1127/203, 1187 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Jace Stuckey QB #122/2, 14 YDS
RushingAmareon Blue RB #1560 CAR, 309 YDS, 3 TD
Braydon Bennett RB #2844 CAR, 195 YDS, 2 TD
Joey Mattord RB #2435 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingHarold Mack WR #523 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD
Benson Prosper WR #324 REC, 251 YDS, 1 TD
Joshua Long TE #922 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD
Nick Devereaux WR #215 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesZach Mowchan LB #1150
Jason Marshall DB #1331
Bryce Llewellyn DB #628
SacksQuincy Byas DL #542
Ronn Hardin DL #882
Joseph Oluwayemi DL #981
InterceptionsCaleb Dobbs DB #172
Jason Marshall DB #131
Rayquan Adkins DB #251
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.