Wk 6 · 2026
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs — Sat, Oct 10
Sat, Oct 10 ·
Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA
· CW FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
10:30pET
BOIS -8.5 · total 48.5 DraftKings opened +7.5 · 1 toward BOIS
Ratings differential BOIS by 7.3
What is at stake
Milk Can. An actual milk can, painted half blue and half red, contested by two dairy-state schools who both moved to the new Pac-12 together in 2026 — so it counts in the standings again. They play for the Milk Can. A Pac-12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Boise St is ranked #23 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Boise St form
W 38-31at FRESW 37-18vs USUW 32-7at WMUW 38-24vs SDAKW 38-20vs MEM
2026 season
Fresno St form
L 31-38vs BOISW 26-6at WSUW 38-24vs RICEW 26-10at SJSUW 49-3vs SAC
2026 season
Boise St this season
Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Fresno St this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | Boise St | Fresno St |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State Pac-12 | vs W 37-18 preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Washington St Pac-12 | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at W 26-6 preview |
| Texas St Pac-12 | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Colorado St Pac-12 | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Oregon St Pac-12 | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| San Diego St Pac-12 | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Boise St leads 14–6 · Boise St won the last one
20 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
12.3 points toward Boise St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-10 | Boise St 38 — 31 Fresno St | at FRES | Boise St |
| 2025 | 2025-11-01 | Fresno St 30 — 7 Boise St | at BOIS | Fresno St |
| 2023 | 2023-11-04 | Boise St 30 — 37 Fresno St | at FRES | Fresno St |
| 2022 | 2022-12-03 | Fresno St 28 — 16 Boise St | at BOIS | Fresno St |
| 2022 | 2022-10-08 | Fresno St 20 — 40 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2021 | 2021-11-06 | Boise St 40 — 14 Fresno St | at FRES | Boise St |
| 2018 | 2018-12-01 | Fresno St 19 — 16 Boise St | at BOIS | Fresno St |
| 2018 | 2018-11-09 | Fresno St 17 — 24 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2017 | 2017-12-02 | Fresno St 14 — 17 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2017 | 2017-11-25 | Boise St 17 — 28 Fresno St | at FRES | Fresno St |
| 2014 | 2014-12-06 | Fresno St 14 — 28 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2014 | 2014-10-17 | Fresno St 27 — 37 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2013 | 2013-09-20 | Boise St 40 — 41 Fresno St | at FRES | Fresno St |
| 2012 | 2012-10-13 | Fresno St 10 — 20 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2011 | 2011-10-07 | Boise St 57 — 7 Fresno St | at FRES | Boise St |
| 2010 | 2010-11-19 | Fresno St 0 — 51 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2009 | 2009-09-18 | Boise St 51 — 34 Fresno St | at FRES | Boise St |
| 2008 | 2008-11-28 | Fresno St 10 — 61 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
| 2007 | 2007-10-26 | Boise St 34 — 21 Fresno St | at FRES | Boise St |
| 2006 | 2006-11-01 | Fresno St 21 — 45 Boise St | at BOIS | Boise St |
Boise St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Maddux Madsen QB #4 | 87/132, 1058 YDS, 11 TD |
| Rushing | Dylan Riley RB #0 | 108 CAR, 685 YDS, 5 TD |
| Sire Gaines RB #26 | 45 CAR, 234 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Maddux Madsen QB #4 | 24 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Rasean Jones WR #19 | 23 REC, 359 YDS, 1 TD |
| Matt Wagner TE #88 | 17 REC, 196 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Akeem Wright WR #5 | 9 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Ben Ford WR #82 | 8 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Boen Phelps LB #1 | 29 |
| Travis Anderson DB #4 | 24 | |
| Derek Ganter Jr. DB #9 | 18 | |
| Sacks | Jayden Virgin-Morgan LB #5 | 2 |
| Max Stege LB #95 | 1.5 | |
| Mikaio Edward DL #97 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Travis Anderson DB #4 | 3 |
| Jake Ripp LB #43 | 1 | |
| Roman Tillmon DB #22 | 1 |
Fresno St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jayden Mandal QB #7 | 91/137, 1034 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT |
| Jordan Malau'ulu WR #10 | 1/1, 21 YDS | |
| Rushing | Rayshon Luke RB #2 | 42 CAR, 286 YDS, 1 TD |
| Bryson Donelson RB #6 | 48 CAR, 206 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jayden Mandal QB #7 | 35 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Josiah Freeman WR #5 | 25 REC, 322 YDS, 2 TD |
| Ezekiel Avit WR #0 | 13 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jahlil McClain WR #1 | 12 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rayshon Luke RB #2 | 12 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | K'vion Thunderbird LB #10 | 39 |
| Simeon Harris DB #5 | 25 | |
| Gerayas Grimes DB #27 | 24 | |
| Sacks | Dylan Hampsten DL #11 | 3 |
| Tytus Khajavi LB #35 | 2 | |
| Deijon Laffitte DL #0 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Simeon Harris DB #5 | 3 |
| Ethan Tierney DB #4 | 2 | |
| Justin Johnson LB #25 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.