Wk 9 · 2026
Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels — Sat, Oct 31
Sat, Oct 31 ·
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 19 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
ACC · 5-0
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential MIA by 18.3
ACC · 3-2
What is at stake
A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Miami is ranked #4 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Miami form
W 41-13at CLEMW 52-3vs CMUW 33-20at WAKEW 77-7vs FAMUW 45-6at STAN
2026 season
North Carolina form
W 21-17at PITTL 26-37vs NDL 20-28at CLEMW 35-3vs ETSUW 15-10at TCU
2026 season
Miami this season
Straight up5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
North Carolina this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Miami | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson ACC | at W 41-13 preview | at L 20-28 preview |
| Pitt ACC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at W 21-17 preview |
| Notre Dame FBS Indep. | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs L 26-37 preview |
| Duke ACC | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, North Carolina leads 11–7 · North Carolina has won the last 5
18 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
0.1 points toward North Carolina
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2023-10-14 | Miami 31 — 41 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2022 | 2022-10-08 | North Carolina 27 — 24 Miami | at MIA | North Carolina |
| 2021 | 2021-10-16 | Miami 42 — 45 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2020 | 2020-12-12 | North Carolina 62 — 26 Miami | at MIA | North Carolina |
| 2019 | 2019-09-07 | Miami 25 — 28 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2018 | 2018-09-27 | North Carolina 10 — 47 Miami | at MIA | Miami |
| 2017 | 2017-10-28 | Miami 24 — 19 North Carolina | at UNC | Miami |
| 2016 | 2016-10-15 | North Carolina 20 — 13 Miami | at MIA | North Carolina |
| 2015 | 2015-11-14 | Miami 21 — 59 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2014 | 2014-11-01 | North Carolina 20 — 47 Miami | at MIA | Miami |
| 2013 | 2013-10-17 | Miami 27 — 23 North Carolina | at UNC | Miami |
| 2012 | 2012-10-13 | North Carolina 18 — 14 Miami | at MIA | North Carolina |
| 2011 | 2011-10-15 | Miami 30 — 24 North Carolina | at UNC | Miami |
| 2010 | 2010-10-23 | North Carolina 10 — 33 Miami | at MIA | Miami |
| 2009 | 2009-11-14 | Miami 24 — 33 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2008 | 2008-09-27 | North Carolina 28 — 24 Miami | at MIA | North Carolina |
| 2007 | 2007-10-06 | Miami 27 — 33 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2006 | 2006-10-07 | North Carolina 7 — 27 Miami | at MIA | Miami |
Miami leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Darian Mensah QB #10 | 112/133, 1438 YDS, 15 TD |
| Luke Nickel QB #5 | 15/20, 204 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Mark Fletcher Jr. RB #4 | 52 CAR, 307 YDS, 5 TD |
| Javian Mallory RB #21 | 39 CAR, 289 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Chris Wheatley-Humphrey RB #25 | 11 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Malachi Toney WR #1 | 39 REC, 604 YDS, 6 TD |
| Cooper Barkate WR #18 | 19 REC, 241 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Elija Lofton TE #9 | 12 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Daylyn Upshaw WR #7 | 13 REC, 129 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Omar Thornton DB #0 | 21 |
| Marquise Lightfoot DL #8 | 20 | |
| Mohamed Toure LB #1 | 18 | |
| Sacks | Marquise Lightfoot DL #8 | 5 |
| Damon Wilson II DL #10 | 3.5 | |
| Omar Thornton DB #0 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Ethan O'Connor DB #24 | 1 |
| Brody Jennings DB #15 | 1 | |
| JJ Dunnigan DB #25 | 1 |
North Carolina leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Billy Edwards Jr. QB #9 | 61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Miles O'Neill QB #8 | 3/6, 22 YDS | |
| Rushing | Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 43 CAR, 251 YDS |
| Demon June RB #0 | 31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jaylen McGill RB #27 | 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 20 REC, 273 YDS |
| Jelani Thurman TE #45 | 16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD | |
| C.J. Sadler WR #14 | 5 REC, 87 YDS | |
| Trech Kekahuna WR #2 | 6 REC, 71 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derek McDonald LB #15 | 36 |
| Peyton Seelmann LB #10 | 31 | |
| Leroy Jackson DL #91 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Xavier Lewis DL #90 | 6 |
| Jaylen Harvey DL #11 | 2 | |
| Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Greg Smith DB #1 | 2 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.