Wk 7 · 2026
UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO
· CBSSN
Mountain West · 4-2
at
3:30pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential UNLV by 2.0
Mountain West · 4-1
What is at stake
A Mountain West game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
UNLV form
W 13-7vs NDSUW 39-31vs CALW 38-10at AKRL 6-44at UNTW 21-6at HAW
2026 season
Air Force form
W 28-7at NIUW 14-9vs NAVYW 36-33at NEVL 32-38vs NDSUW 34-0vs DUQ
2026 season
UNLV this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Air Force this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | UNLV | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| N Dakota St Mountain West | vs W 13-7 preview | vs L 32-38 preview |
| N Illinois Mountain West | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at W 28-7 preview |
| Wyoming Mountain West | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| New Mexico Mountain West | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| San José St Mountain West | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Nevada Mountain West | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at W 36-33 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Air Force leads 10–5 · UNLV has won the last 2
15 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
10.8 points toward Air Force
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-10-11 | Air Force 48 — 51 UNLV | at UNLV | UNLV |
| 2023 | 2023-11-18 | UNLV 31 — 27 Air Force | at AF | UNLV |
| 2022 | 2022-10-15 | Air Force 42 — 7 UNLV | at UNLV | Air Force |
| 2021 | 2021-11-26 | UNLV 14 — 48 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2018 | 2018-10-19 | Air Force 41 — 35 UNLV | at UNLV | Air Force |
| 2017 | 2017-10-14 | UNLV 30 — 34 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2014 | 2014-11-08 | Air Force 48 — 21 UNLV | at UNLV | Air Force |
| 2013 | 2013-11-21 | UNLV 41 — 21 Air Force | at AF | UNLV |
| 2012 | 2012-09-22 | Air Force 35 — 38 UNLV | at UNLV | UNLV |
| 2011 | 2011-11-19 | UNLV 17 — 45 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2010 | 2010-11-18 | Air Force 35 — 20 UNLV | at UNLV | Air Force |
| 2009 | 2009-11-14 | UNLV 17 — 45 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2008 | 2008-10-18 | Air Force 29 — 28 UNLV | at UNLV | Air Force |
| 2007 | 2007-10-06 | UNLV 14 — 31 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2006 | 2006-11-24 | Air Force 39 — 42 UNLV | at UNLV | UNLV |
UNLV leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jackson Arnold QB #11 | 79/133, 1063 YDS, 8 TD |
| Alex Orji QB #1 | 1/5, 9 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Jai'Den Thomas RB #9 | 73 CAR, 383 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jackson Arnold QB #11 | 73 CAR, 270 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Jaylon Glover RB #0 | 16 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Taz Reddicks WR #2 | 14 REC, 272 YDS, 2 TD |
| Kayden McGee WR #6 | 8 REC, 188 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Taeshaun Lyons WR #8 | 11 REC, 120 YDS | |
| Jai'Den Thomas RB #9 | 12 REC, 108 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Cam Santee LB #23 | 37 |
| Jake Pope S #7 | 36 | |
| Tre Fulton DB #10 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Tre Fulton DB #10 | 3.5 |
| Kal-El Togafau DL #44 | 3 | |
| Elias Rudolph LB #91 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Quandarius Keyes DB #5 | 2 |
| Mumu Bin-Wahad DB #1 | 1 | |
| Tre Fulton DB #10 | 1 |
Air Force leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Liam Szarka QB #9 | 19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT |
| Evan Medders QB #5 | 3/7, 47 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Liam Szarka QB #9 | 92 CAR, 391 YDS, 7 TD |
| Rocco Conti RB #44 | 35 CAR, 187 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kemper Hodges QB #4 | 23 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Simon Kibbee TE #80 | 6 REC, 103 YDS |
| Adam Hrynciw WR #10 | 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Matt Long WR #3 | 4 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jonah Dawson WR #8 | 3 REC, 39 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Blake Fletcher LB #6 | 44 |
| Dallas Daley LB #8 | 28 | |
| Max Mustell DB #36 | 15 | |
| Sacks | Max Mustell DB #36 | 2 |
| Jaylin Reese LB #45 | 1.5 | |
| Blake Fletcher LB #6 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Max Mustell DB #36 | 1 |
| Blake Fletcher LB #6 | 1 | |
| Korey Johnson DB #2 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.