Wk 6 · 2026

USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions — Sat, Oct 10

Sat, Oct 10 · Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA · NBC FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.

#19 USC Trojans

Big Ten · 6-1

7:30pET

USC -1.5 · total 54.5 DraftKings opened -1.5 · 3 toward USC

Ratings differential PSU by 1.3

Penn State Nittany Lions

Big Ten · 3-3

What is at stake

A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. USC is ranked #19 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

USC: +12.0#24

Efficiency margin

Penn State: +10.9#28

USC: 38.9

Offense (pts/100)

Penn State: 35.3

USC: 17.9

Defense (pts/100)

Penn State: 15.4

USC: 69.3

Pace (plays/g)

Penn State: 65.2

USC: 6.67

Yards / play

Penn State: 6.03

USC: 5.95

Yards / play allowed

Penn State: 5.12

Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

USC: 36.4

Points / game

Penn State: 30.5

USC: 25.1

Points allowed

Penn State: 18.5

USC: 462

Yards / game

Penn State: 393

USC: 350

Yards allowed

Penn State: 316

USC: 239

Pass yds allowed

Penn State: 150

USC: 111

Rush yds allowed

Penn State: 166

USC: 0.86

Turnovers / game

Penn State: 0.67

From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

USC form

W 31-23at PSUW 25-21vs WASHL 27-41vs OREW 42-35at RUTGW 49-30vs UL

2026 season

Penn State form

L 23-31vs USCL 13-34at NUL 20-24vs WISW 55-13vs BUFW 27-9at TEM

2026 season

USC this season

Straight up6-1 · 86% (7 games)

Against the spread2-5 · 29% (7 games)

Over / under4-3 · 57% (7 games)

Penn State this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)

Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)

Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)

Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 4

Opponent	USC	Penn State
Rutgers Big Ten	at W 42-35 preview	vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Washington Big Ten	vs W 25-21 preview	at Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Wisconsin Big Ten	at Wk 8 · scheduled preview	vs L 20-24 preview
Maryland Big Ten	vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview	at Wk 13 · scheduled preview

Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, USC leads 3–1 · USC won the last one

4 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 5.5 points toward USC

Yr	Date	Result	Site	Won
2026	2026-10-10	USC 31 — 23 Penn State	at PSU	USC
2024	2024-10-12	Penn State 33 — 30 USC	at USC	Penn State
2016	2017-01-02	USC 52 — 49 Penn State	neutral	USC bowl/CFP
2008	2009-01-01	Penn State 24 — 38 USC	neutral	USC bowl/CFP

USC leaders 2026 regular season

Passing	Jayden Maiava QB #14	131/191, 1744 YDS, 15 TD, 3 INT
	Jonas Williams QB #15	12/14, 126 YDS, 1 INT
Rushing	King Miller RB #8	95 CAR, 493 YDS, 3 TD
	Waymond Jordan RB #2	57 CAR, 265 YDS, 2 TD
	Shahn Alston RB #22	17 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving	Kayden Dixon-Wyatt WR #17	25 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD
	Zacharyus Williams WR #0	14 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD
	Trent Mosley WR #4	13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD
	Mark Bowman TE #19	21 REC, 204 YDS, 2 TD

Defense

Tackles	Christian Pierce S #6	35
	Deven Bryant LB #17	33
	Luke Wafle DE #94	22
Sacks	Kennedy Urlacher S #9	2
	Alex Graham CB #7	2
	Jadyn Ramos DE #95	2
Interceptions	Prophet Brown CB #16	2
	Christian Pierce S #6	1

full roster and per-player history

Penn State leaders 2026 regular season

Passing	Rocco Becht QB #3	83/134, 1108 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
	Alex Manske QB #7	9/14, 102 YDS
Rushing	James Peoples RB #1	45 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD
	Carson Hansen RB #21	43 CAR, 199 YDS, 2 TD
	Quinton Martin Jr. RB #25	29 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving	Koby Howard WR #6	12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD
	Chase Sowell WR #0	19 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD
	Benjamin Brahmer TE #18	16 REC, 178 YDS, 3 TD
	Brett Eskildsen WR #4	15 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD

Defense

Tackles	Tony Rojas LB #13	34
	Kooper Ebel LB #8	29
	Cael Brezina LB #9	20
Sacks	Tony Rojas LB #13	3
	Kooper Ebel LB #8	1
	Caleb Bacon LB #10	1
Interceptions	Tony Rojas LB #13	2
	Daryus Dixson CB #5	1
	Josiah Zayas CB #17	1

full roster and per-player history

These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.